As we emerge from our fifth heatwave of the summer, thousands of hectares are charred by devastating wildfires, while much more of the country is parched, yellow and brown. The impact on farming has already grabbed the headlines, but we still need to realise just how serious the situation is – and how urgently action is needed.
It is impossible to underestimate just how tough the summer of 2026, with its record-breaking temperatures and droughts, has been for farmers. This is set to be the worst harvest on record, with arable farmers bringing in their crops weeks earlier than they would normally expect. Livestock farmers, meanwhile, have seen poor grass growth and small yields of hay and silage. It’s only midsummer, but some are already feeding their animals what should have been enough to get them through the winter.
All of this means food price rises are unavoidable in the short to medium term. In these conditions, we simply can’t grow enough to fill supermarket shelves, while large parts of Europe face the same problems, squeezing our imports. It is vital to find ways to ensure people on low incomes can access food as prices spike.
To its credit, Andy Burnham’s government is looking at short-term measures to alleviate some of the issues, such as a ban on disposable barbecues, which will undoubtedly lower the risks of wildfires. But we also need to look at the longer-term questions of how we grow food in this country. Without action, the future is a spiralling decline of worsening food production, failing farm businesses and eye-watering costs for consumers.
Fortunately, we already have many of the solutions we need. As an arable farmer working in Cambridgeshire, I’ve seen just how tough farming has become. But as CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, I also see hope in the thousands of farmers striving to do things differently, finding solutions that will keep us producing food even as the climate crisis deepens.
Farming’s future largely depends on two things: healthy soil and water availability. The current drought across England and Wales has concentrated minds on the issue of water. There are difficult decisions and trade-offs ahead, as farmers and food production compete for water with demands ranging from datacentres to outdoor leisure facilities. There are also calls for short-term fixes, like new reservoirs. But we need to do far more.
We need to focus on holding more water in catchment areas for longer periods of time, including by supporting farmers to invest in their soil. The current conventional farming system – reliant on high levels of nitrogen fertiliser, fossil fuels and other chemicals – has depleted our soils, leaving them less resilient to the extreme weather we face and even worsening the problem.
But healthy soil, where inputs are reduced to allow organic matter to thrive, acts as a giant sponge beneath our landscape, retaining water when it does rain for use during long, dry spells. This would not just aid food production and farming, but would greatly benefit the wider environment and lower the risk of devastating wildfires. Much depends on rewetting large parts of our tinder-dry landscape.
This will only become more important. Scientists predict cycles of long droughts, followed by wetter winters with torrential downpours; it could not be clearer from this year that we are woefully unprepared to deal with this.
However, farmers cannot do all this alone. Contrary to what some people think, farmers are asset-rich but cash-poor, running businesses on razor-thin margins. Given the existential threat that climate change now poses to our food and therefore to national security, both the government and the private sector must act now.
The government must back up its supportive words on nature-friendly farming with action. The agri-environment schemes that reward farmers for delivering public goods need budgets commensurate with demand, starting with the next Sustainable Farming Incentive window in September. Alarmingly, ministers have floated taking environmental and social requirements out of public procurement. This would send a frankly disastrous signal that these things are not important, while leaving a terrible legacy for our young people and the next generations.
The supply chain, most notably large food businesses, needs nature-friendly farming for its long-term survival. While there are examples of good practice in funding the agricultural transition, far more investment is needed as a whole.
At an even larger scale, our reliance on a just-in-time food system, which was created in a different era, needs rethinking. Fossil fuel use must be rapidly scaled down and carbon emissions dramatically lowered. This, along with nature-friendly farming, could see us enter an admittedly uncertain future with hope that we can continue to produce nutritious, sustainable food in landscapes richer with biodiversity and nature than we see today.
If we do nothing, harvests will continue to shrink, food prices will rocket (hurting most those who can least afford it), and farm businesses will close.
This summer's dramatic images of yellow-brown fields and burnt-off grass, alongside farmers talking frankly about the existential risk their businesses face, should be a wake-up call. This is the coolest, most amenable summer we will experience for the rest of our lives. From here, things simply escalate; conditions get hotter and more extreme.
After this summer, no one can say they weren't aware of what's at stake. The only question now is whether we act quickly enough.
