Catalan independence rally on Catalan National Day. Roger De Marfa/Demotix. All rights reserved.The vote count in the Catalan regional election is not yet finalized, but initial estimates give the pro-independence parties an electoral plurality that translates into a substantial parliamentary majority. This is at best a mixed result for Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras, who were much criticized for the begrudging manner in which the separatist coalition came together earlier in the year and who failed to recapture the sum of votes given to their parties separately in 2012. However, it remains a heavy blow for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose consistent mishandling of Catalan affairs have acted as a spur to Spain’s prickliest region. His government was responsible for numerous wholly avoidable gaffes that undermined the pro-union position just days before the election and undoubtedly contributed to the record turnout of 77 percent of the electorate. As of 11:15 p.m., with 96 percent of the ballots counted, the election stands as follows:
Initial ballot count, Catalan elections. Credit: Fernando Betancor. All rights reserved.The result, if confirmed, would yield a parliamentary majority of four delegates, which is enough for Junts Pel Sí and CUP to form a stable government and begin to implement their transition plan. What it does not mean is an immediate declaration of independence: as much as members of Esquerra Republicana and CUP might desire it, it is not on the cards unless the Spanish government takes some irrevocable action that would force the new Generalitat’s hand. Any attempt to arrest pro-independence members of the Catalan government or to suspend the region’s Statute of Autonomy would undoubtedly provoke just such an immediate rupture.
The most immediate and perhaps fatal problem is that the pro-independence groups failed to secure an electoral majority. The independence vote amounts to 48 percent, which wouldn’t have won a straight-up referendum. And while Messrs. Mas and Junqueras have already declared victory and their intention to proceed with preparations for independence, it will be nearly impossible to convince an already doubtful international community that there is a democratic mandate in the face of 52 percent of Catalans voting for a non-independence option. Given that international recognition and support is a sine qua non for Catalonia’s successful transition to a new state, this is a worrisome portent. Of course, Mr. Rajoy has even less cause to declare victory: his party was massacred and only 39 percent of Catalans were unambiguously in favour of staying in Spain.
