The general election has led to wildly different results for coalition partners, Nick Clegg and David Cameron. Flickr/Number 10.As the results are coming in, and the exit polls are getting more and more confirmed, it becomes painfully clear that the opinion polls were woefully wrong. Rather than a neck and neck race between the Conservative Party and Labour, the Tories look set to comfortably beat Labour. More surprising, the much-haunted coalition government of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats may even manage to regain a (tiny) majority, despite the huge drubbing of the Lib Dems. While the Conservative victory is remarkable, it is a mere incident in the fundamental transformation of British politics that is being played out in at least four important chapters.
(1) A disunited kingdom
For the first time in modern British history each nation within the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has a different largest party. The Conservatives are the biggest party in England, the SNP in Scotland, Labour in Wales, and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland. The irony is that this fragmentation – were the UK an Eastern European country we would call it Balkanization – comes after a resounding victory of UKIP in the European elections and a cliffhanger defeat of the Scottish referendum. Just as Brittania seemed to be ruling the waves as strong as ever, having rejected both Europe and Scotland, it is pulled apart in the British elections.
(2) A Labour disaster
The fact that Labour has lost is one thing, but the fact that the Labour lost in opposition, and in opposition to an uncomfortable coalition government of both major opponents to boot, is almost unbelievable. While the pundits scream for Ed Miliband’s head, which is understandable, Labour’s defeat has many more structural causes than an uninspiring party leader. Throughout western Europe social democratic parties have lost most of their traditional white working class base, mostly to right-wing populist parties or non-voting. At the same time they are losing their long-standing dominance among immigrant voters, who are increasingly finding a home in center-right parties (and generally have a lower turnout).
