Three years after the invasion of Iraq, the promise of a democratic Middle East remains unfulfilled. Rather than becoming a beacon of peace, stability and good government, Iraq is on the brink of a civil war. Some argue that the continued presence of Western forces has made the situation worse, and that the best we can now do is to ‘get out’. Others believe that we need to stay, not least in order to prevent the country from breaking up.
A strategic redeployment
Lawrence Korb
The Bush administration’s numerous mistakes have left us with few good options. To protect our security interests, the U.S. should announce a timetable for redeploying all American forces from Iraq by the end of 2007 and stating that it will not maintain permanent bases in the country. As long as Iraqis feel that American troops will remain indefinitely, they will not be motivated to make the compromises necessary to create a unified Iraq, nor will Iraq’s security forces be motivated to deal with the violence. Moreover, an American exit will diminish support for the insurgents.
Disengaging from Iraq will also prevent the American army from breaking. To prevent Iraq from being invaded by a foreign power or becoming a haven for terrorists, the U.S. should leave about 30,000 forces in the region and launch a diplomatic initiative to create a regional cooperative security network aimed at securing Iraq’s borders and taking down extremist networks.
Lawrence Korb is Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. He served as Assistant Secretary of Defence in Ronald Reagan’s first Administration (1981-85). Read his recent paper: "Strategic Redeployment: A Progressive Plan for Iraq and the Struggle Against Violent Extremists".   More work to be done
Patrick Clawson
We should base our strategy for the future on the realities about Iraq's situation, not on our anger about how we got into this tight spot. The insurgents are now mostly killing Iraqi civilians, putting the lie to the claim their objection is to the U.S. presence; they want to restore Sunni minority rule. The new Iraqi forces are slowly taking over more responsiblity for security operations. The police no longer abandon their posts, and the military has light infantry units which can operate well alongside U.S. units.
But more has to be done: the police are too much influenced by local warlords, and the military officers are still learning how to operate on their own, plus there is no air force yet to back up infantry units which get into trouble. Over the next few years, U.S. forces can be drawn down. As they leave, Iraq will remain a weak and fragile society with at best an imperfect democracy, but at least the vicious jihadists will be thwarted.
Patrick Clawson is Deputy Director of Research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly.
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