Why commentators in the United Kingdom and Europe should be surprised by Jeremy Corbyn’s decisive victory in the Labour party’s leadership election is anybody’s guess. True, his was not a household name even in Britain, and when he entered the race in June - a month after the party's clear defeat in the general election - it seemed to have been practically by default. When early polling suggested he had a chance of winning, the British media reacted (a few exceptions apart) with fury, mauling the left-wing member for Islington North and his radical views with gusto. Many pundits, following the polls too closely, got the result of the May election wrong. This, then, was a double shock. The failure of judgment involved, as seen also over European issues and the rise of ISIS, reflects the fact that deeper political shifts are now underway which too often escape the notice of a media obsessed by fashions, surfaces, and the short term.
In this light, Corbyn’s victory - and its scale, with almost 60% of the vote going to him - reflects two trends in European politics which have been obvious for some time and which can only get stronger. First, a growing loss of confidence in the political and commercial elites of many high-income countries (such as France, Spain, Italy, and the UK - though less so in Germany and Scandinavia), in parallel with the rise of a populist right (France's National Front and Britain's UKIP in particular). The latter identifies corrupt elites, foreigners and scroungers as enemies of the nation and people. A populist left for its part emphasies the subservience of the political and media elites to greedy bankers and plutocrats; it believes in reversing some of the privatisations of the last three decades, reducing inequality, and using the state to tackle social ills.
Second, the depressed real incomes of many middle-class people, and the persistently high levels of unemployment among the young in countries such as France and Spain since the banking crisis of 2007, have offered fertile soil for strong feelings of discontent. That is now turning into cold rage. In municipal elections in June, the radical left-wing Podemos and its affiliates upset traditional political parties by winning major Spanish cities like Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia from the conservatives. In France, Marine Le Pen might well win the Nord Pas de Calais region and her niece the Provence Côte d’Azur region in upcoming regional elections.
