Magnus Ranstorp is Chief Scientist at the Centre for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defence College, and perhaps the world’s leading authority on Hezbollah. His work on the behaviour of the movement was recognized by the Israeli media in March 2000 as among the contributing factors leading to the decision by the Israeli government to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
Madrid11: Almost five weeks into the conflict, how is Hezbollah doing?
Magnus Ranstorp: Hezbollah is riding on a tidal wave of popularity, both in Lebanon and in the region as a whole. By surviving, and by inflicting some damage on Israel, they have succeeded where no else in the Arab world has. They don’t have to win this, they just have to stay afloat.
Madrid11: You think Hezbollah’s position has been strengthened in the long-term?
Magnus Ranstorp: As long as they can prevent international efforts to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1559 [which calls for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias], they will be fine.
It’s a huge challenge for them, but they are in a strong position because they have been embedding themselves within the political structures of Lebanon. Some experts even argue that it would be an oxymoron to say that they are a ‘state within a state’, because there is no functioning, effective Lebanese state. Hezbollah has filled that vacuum in a tremendously effective way.
They are playing the Lebanese political card very well. They are trying to reach across sectarian divides to represent all of Lebanon, and the ferocity of the Israeli reaction has only strengthened their long-term viability – not as a reserve force, but as THE force to protect the country from Israel.
Madrid11: How do you explain Israel’s failure to detect Hezbollah’s strength?
Magnus Ranstorp: They managed to take out a number of long-range missile systems. They also had warnings about the number of rockets that have been shipped. They were, however, taken by surprise by the fact that Hezbollah had been able to dig such complicated underground tunnel systems.
Israel knew that Hezbollah had divided up the country into 75 military sectors. There was intelligence – for over a year – indicating that Hezbollah represented a threat, and that they were trying to kidnap Israeli soldiers. There was even a reported threat of Hezbollah trying to kidnap Israelis overseas.
At the same time, Israel has not fully unleashed its military force. A mistake made by Israel, for example, was not to take out the leadership – the 30 to 50 people that occupy the top positions within the movement. They haven’t even taken out the leader of the military wing.
What they are trying to do, I think, is to clean out South Lebanon in order to get the international community to come in with a stabilisation force. The idea is not to destroy Hezbollah, but to lock them into some diplomatic arrangement in order to ensure a more effective implementation of resolution 1559.
Madrid11: Who is directing the Hezbollah campaign? Who takes the decisions?
Magnus Ranstorp: It’s a complicated process. Nasrallah is the overall head of Hezbollah. He is the Secretary-General, and has been the personal representative of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei [the current supreme leader of Iran] in Lebanon since 1992.
He commands the seven-member supreme decision-making body of Hezbollah, which - occasionally - includes up to two Iranian government representatives.
Hezbollah has about forty additional structures and bodies, which are responsible not only of the political and military side of things, but also – importantly – the social activities which represent an important reason for the movement’s widespread appeal within Lebanese society.
Madrid11: Would the council take military decisions on a day-to-day basis?
Magnus Ranstorp: They take the strategic decisions, but they are not in charge of daily matters. That is left to the head of the Islamic resistance, and – by extension – to the leaderships of the regional units.
There are also a few Iranian advisers, which evaluate the effectiveness of operations. But that depends on the weapons systems that are used. And the more sophisticated the operation is, the more the supreme council is involved, not least in order to be able to brief Syrian intelligence and the Iranians.
Madrid11: What do you think are the ramifications for the wider Middle East?
Magnus Ranstorp: It signifies the ascendancy of a Shia axis, stretching from Hezbollah, Muktadr al Sadr’s militia in Iraq all the way to the regime in Iran. That doesn’t bode well for the geopolitical competition between the United States and Iran over the nuclear issue.
Getting the disarmament of Hezbollah right is hugely important. It will have great implications also for the Israeli-Palestinian and the wider Israeli-Arab conflict. For that reason alone, we cannot abandon that process. The United States, France and the international community as a whole have to press ahead with implementing resolution 1559.
