John Osmond (Cardiff, IWA): Plaid Cymru is facing the toughest decision. The party's Group in the National Assembly has been negotiating a coalition deal with Labour in the National Assembly. Now it must choose between this or leading a Rainbow coalition with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats (see my earlier post). All the indications are that Plaid's leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has resolved to throw in his lot with Labour. He is currently speaking at a series of party meetings across Wales to sound out opinion. A meeting in Caernarfon on Friday evening was attended by 160 activists. Other meetings take place in Neath and Cardiff, Denbigh, Carmarthen, Blackwood, and Aberystwyth over the next ten days, culminating in a gathering of the party's National Council on 7 July. But the crunch will come this Tuesday, the day before the transition from Blair to Brown, when Plaid's Group in the Assembly and Labour's Welsh Executive meet separately to sign off a deal.
Many Plaid supporters are wondering why the party appears to be turning down what may be a once-only historic opportunity to lead the country. Certainly Ieuan Wyn Jones is unlikely to have the chance of becoming First Minister again and it may Plaid playing second fiddle for years to come. The stakes couldn't be higher.
What are the terms of the deal? They remain under wraps but already Plaid Cymru's Honorary President, former Caernarfon MP Dafydd Wigley has voiced fears that the party's 15 Assembly Members may be selling themselves short. He says they should demand that Labour commit to:
1. Guaranteeing £500 million match funding for the new EU Convergence Fund for west Wales and the Valleys; and
2. Full implementation of the cross-party Richard Commission recommendation that the Assembly have full law making powers and an increase from 60 to 80 members elected by STV.
Fir Wigley the money is decisive: "Ever since 1999 we have been pressing for EU match funding from the Treasury, yet so far not a penny has been provided. This has meant that the Assembly Government has had no option but to raid its core budgets for higher education, the health service and local government. There is a new Comprehensive Spending Review due from the Treasury, probably in October, That should certainly include £500 million match funding for the Assembly."
Rhodri Morgan has had two meetings with Welsh Labour MPs in Westminster to keep them in the loop on the talks with Plaid. They are reported to be extremely unhappy at the prospect of Plaid in power but see it is better them to have Plaid as a junior partner than leading a Rainbow coalition and Labour in opposition. It is unlikely, however, that Gordon Brown has been confronted with Wigley's demand for £500 million. Would he pay up to prevent all three nations going nationalist?
