Traders are so far split on the question of where the price of rice will be in 3 months time with predicted cost at $216, the same as it was for March. Do you disagree with their take on the food crisis situation? What will the price of rice be in July?
The wisdom of the crowd was throughly with Mugabe remaining President past April 30 but the predictions continues with the Who will be the next president of Zimbabwe? market. Will he hang on by hook or by crook in the secound round of voting or will a face-saving deal be recached that sees him exiting the top job in favour of a compromise candidate? Roger Southall has a great analysis of the situation in his article South Africa and Zimbabwe: the end of “quiet diplomacy”?.
The chance of an Olympics boycott continues to drop, down to only 32%. Is the crowd wrong in its predictions so far? Let us know here!
With the Democratic primaries in the US continuing to go on and on like the Energiser bunny and the contest between the two reamining as interesting (or dull, depending on your perspective) as ever there are still a lot of challenges facing the country. We're chosing to focus on the state of the economy and how much US interest rates will move this year. The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the past 7 months and may still go further yet if the economy doesn't pick up. How much do you think interest rates will move this year?
Still on the primaries, Obama is fairing extraordinarily well against Hillary in the Which candidate will win the Democratic Presidential nomination? market with a 65% chance against 24% for Hillary. Will money troubles see Hillary bow out before the convention in August or will she go on through and cause an upset on the day? Hillary may but the collective wisdom is well against Al Gore making any surprise moves at the last minute with only a 30% chance in Will Al Gore run for President?
You can trade in the openDemocracy markets here. You will need an Inkling Markets account [which is free] to participate. The predictive markets are aimed at harnessing the wisdom of the oD crowd - please contribute your knowledge. You can read more on the markets at The wisdom of the openDemocracy crowd and The openDemocracy crowd's wisdom: January 2007 report.
Remember: There will be free copies of the Quarterly, openDemocracy's new print journal, for star traders at the end of the year. Hop in and get trading!
