Will the succession of heatwaves across Europe and the UK compel governments of all complexions to take climate breakdown more seriously? While much of the news and public conversation this summer has focused on the tragic deaths of people caught in wildfires, floods, and storms, less attention has been paid to how heat waves kill people directly.
When the temperature rises to the point where the body can no longer cool itself, this is termed “uncompensable heat stress”, or UHS, and has long been known to have a disproportionate risk for the over sixties: The older you are, the less you can sweat; your heart works harder and your blood vessels are less able to widen, all adding to the risk of heat stress and early death. In an ageing and warming world, people older than sixty will increase in numbers to 2.1 billion by 2050 and are more likely to succumb to UHS.
Last year, one of the hottest ever on record in Britain, analysis from the UK Health Security Agency put excess deaths due to heat-related factors at 1,504. As of June this year, most of the country had already experienced four heatwaves, causing 2,877 excess deaths. Since then, there have been more heat waves with early indications of another in September, meaning a huge increase in heat-related deaths as compared to the previous year.
This rapid escalation in heat-related deaths is worth considering in a context where previous forecasts on the rate of climate change have proved to be too optimistic: Heavily populated Europe appears to be heating up much faster than the average, and research on the ability of forests to soak up greenhouse gases and help prevent climate breakdown has turned out to be less than expected.
Meanwhile, the naturally occurring El Niño/La Niña climate cycle is entering a “heating phase”, which is likely to further increase global heating and disruptive weather in the coming months. On Friday, the Met Office warned that this year’s El Nino is likely to be the most intense in recent memory. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, told the BBC. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
Sleep-walking towards disaster
Why are we sleepwalking towards disaster in this way when it simply does not make sense? Of the many reasons, three stand out; each requiring concerted governmental effort and leadership.
First, what needs to be done is a mammoth task. Not only will we have to radically decarbonise our economies, but we will need major changes in behaviour including a much less meat-based diet, far less use of air travel and far greater use of electricity generated from renewable resources, and a far more circular economy.
Second, the current economic system where neoliberal economics in its various forms is simply not fit for purpose. Crucially, when it comes to climate breakdown the need to act a decade or more ahead of impact is incompatible with free market ideology that believes that the market works best when it has the minimum of regulation. The kind of economic planning and management that the risk of climate breakdown requires is anathema to the very idea of a free market.
Moreover, this is in addition to the runaway wealth that the current free market system favours. So endemic to the system is the accumulation of wealth and political power in the hands of an elite few, that any attempt at an environmentally sustainable economy “for the many, not the few” will be strongly resisted by the few.
Finally, there are the well-resourced right-wing think tanks and lobbies determined to maintain the status quo. The Atlas Foundation alone “provides training, networking, and grants for libertarian, free-market and conservative groups around the world” working with nearly 800 groups in over a hundred countries.
Especially culpable in this regard, are the activities of the fossil carbon lobbies. Some of these, including Exxon, researched the risk of climate breakdown fifty years or more ago, uncovered the dangers of doing nothing, and then carried on as before. Greenpeace was even able to develop a decades long obfuscation timeline.
Adaptation is not enough
There is already support in the UK and many other countries for adapting to a warmer world, including much better funded emergency services, improved housing and better ventilation, but a core problem remains.
Adaption currently envisaged means very little unless it is accompanied by addressing the root causes of climate breakdown, especially the burning of fossil carbon in the form of coal, oil or gas. All that adaptation does is give us a few extra years before we are overwhelmed by even higher temperatures and wilder weather, and that goes on, and on, with far more of the world becoming uninhabitable.
The heat excesses of the past year will have killed many tens of thousands of people across the world, especially among the poorest. It is vital to shift the political mood enough to truly accelerate the necessary changes. There is a small chance that further devastation caused by El Nino might focus minds on the reality of climate breakdown, but the likes of Trump and most of the global oligarchy will do all they can to prevent that.
