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What is next for Venezuela?

The standoff between Venezuela’s government and opposition has reached a worrying juncture, with negotiations falling apart, side deals emerging and regional states rolling out new sanctions on Caracas. Is there an exit from the country’s ever deepening crisis?

What is next for Venezuela?
December 30, 2019, Venezuela, Caracas: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro delivers a New Year's speech. - Photo: Jhonander Gamarra / Prensa Miraflores / dpa. All rights reserved
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This is a short version of the latest briefing of the International Crisis Group on Venezuela, entitled: "Venezuela: Is there life after the Barbados talks?" Read the full briefing here

What’s new? At least for now, Norwegian-facilitated negotiations to end Venezuela’s presidential showdown have collapsed. Meanwhile, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has forged an agreement with minority opposition parties. Together with regional powers’ decision to define Venezuela as a threat to hemispheric security, these developments could complicate a resolution of the crisis.

Why does it matter? Failure to restore political stability and socio-economic well-being in Venezuela fuels South America’s worst-ever refugee crisis, risks a low-intensity internal conflict, propagates tensions across the region and threatens to trigger military clashes with neighbouring Colombia.