Matteo Renzi should be feeling worried. Demotix/Massimo Valicchia. Some rights reserved.On Sunday, 31 May, regional elections will be held in seven very sensitive regions in Italy. It is thought that the results of these elections will - on the one hand - partly clarify the political situation, at present particularly confused and chaotic even by Italian standards, and - on the other - give some indications on possible future trends.
In Italy, opinion polls cannot be made public for a number of weeks prior to elections, and, because of this, forecasting is made much more complex and very much based on intuition and guesswork. The more influential and wealthier political parties, however, commission polls of their own, and the changing attitudes of the party leaders can give an idea of the directions being taken by public opinion.
Still strongly influenced by the unprecedented 40% victory in last year’s European elections, leaders of the ruling Democratic Party, equating the upcoming contest to a football game (not unusual in Italy), were forecasting a crushing 7-0 victory. At later stages, wiser counsels prevailed and the probable score was given as 6-1 (The Veneto region appears to be safely in the hands of the “Northern League”), or - in a “worst case scenario” - 5-2.
