Anthony Barnett (London, OK): As Gavin suggests, Brown is being sorely tempted to consider a quick, legitimacy-bestowing general election. He has the momentum and a lead that it is hard to imagine he'll retain in two years time with the strong possibility of an economic downturn and David Davis as Tory leader, parading the reality of his Territorial Army SAS training, tough working class background, and principled stand on liberties, against Brown's Scottish contrived Britishness. For it may well be that Davis after Cameron's rebranding will be a much better candidate than he would have been when the party was still 'old Tory'. But a quick election now may have a booby-trap built in: the EU referendum issue. See Guy's recent post on how this is building up steam. If Brown went to the voters this autumn before 18 Oct and won, he could claim a Sarkozy-like mandate to sign the treaty. But he'd have to campaign on it saying that it is a necessary continuity of our role in Europe and no great change. It's hard to say this with a straight face when no other leader in Europe agrees. If Brown holds an election in the Spring after 18 October, when he and other EU heads of government have met to ratify the treaty, it still hands the Conservatives a great issue: "You say you are for democracy, Prime Minister, but you have gone back on your word about giving us a say over the EU". Brown badly needs a positive policy on Europe. There is no sign of this.
PS: There is a discussion of an early election impact in Wales in Normalmouth
