Two weeks ago, there was still a belief that the Taliban might take months to take control of Afghanistan and that they might even agree to a peace deal, perhaps viewing one as a useful step on their way to power.
That has now changed dramatically. Last week, the US called a desperate, last-ditch meeting with Taliban negotiators in Doha, the Qatari capital, involving countries in the region, as well as Russia and China. The aim was to convince the Taliban that they would be treated as a pariah state if they seized power by force. In parallel, the Afghan government offered a share of power in return for a ceasefire. Negotiations have since ended with both endeavours failing.
Meanwhile in Afghanistan, most significant urban areas outside of Kabul, including the majority of provincial capitals, are now under Taliban control. The Pentagon is sending 3,000 troops to the country to help evacuate US citizens and Afghans who have been granted visas after working with the US, with the UK also deploying 600 soldiers. In addition, the US will move another thousand troops to Qatar and has put an entire brigade of 4,000 troops in Kuwait, ready to be deployed to Afghanistan if required. That 8,000 troops have been made available gives some indication of the fears in the Pentagon that things could go badly wrong.
