Matthew Oliver (London, Unlock Democracy): The Conservative front-bench have been quick to claim credit for yesterday’s Government U-Turn on parliamentary expenses. Whilst it is true that their move meant that any vote would have been eye wateringly tight for even the most optimistic Government Whip, the real success is due to the online and media campaign run by amongst others, Unlock Democracy and mySociety.
What is also true however is that a significant minority of Conservative backbenchers are seething tonight. Cocooned inside the Westminster Bubble and their 1997-proof safe seats, these MPs are finding themselves slightly at odds with today’s changing society, which no longer views the Commons as a political private members club
What will be interesting is how these backbenchers contemplate the changed political environment over the next 12 months. Will they keeping ‘fighting the good fight’ and keep trying to block release of expenses? Will they decide that the new transparent House of Commons is not the members club they initially signed up for and retire? Or will they retreat to their green benches, lick their wounds and wait for the best time to enact their revenge.
It is no secret that a sizeable proportion of the Conservative benches are wary of David Cameron, however back him as they realise he is a political winner, just as Labour backed Tony Blair from 1994. It does not take much imagination to envisage a scenario where Cameron is Prime Minister but with a small (ish) majority, and he is held to ransom by the very MP’s he has so annoyed today, with possibly his leadership on the line.
Often in the past, just as it is now, it has suited Cameron to be seen to be fighting the ‘old guard’. He will hope however that the political weather stays fair for him and the polls keep as they are, otherwise he may find there is life in these ‘old dogs’ yet.
