What happens to Labour if the Tories back strong devolution?

David Melding AM, a Conservative Member of the Senedd, has suggested that Britain should implement a more fully federal Constitution, as a way of relieving pressures on the Union. This is from a piece by David Williamson at Wales Online.

The United Kingdom is in danger of disintegration and should embrace a federal structure of government and create individual parliaments in each nation, Conservative AM David Melding declares in a major book published today.

He envisages a new constitutional settlement which could cut the number of MPs at Westminster to 300 and officially recognise the sovereignty over domestic issues of the parliaments of Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Even ignoring the implication of a savage cut in the numbers of MPs at Westminster, this is fascinating politically for a number of reasons.

The Conservatives have sometimes been referred to as “English Nationalists”, and Conservative Government has been founded on a strong majority of English seats at Westminster - compensating for a position in Scotland and Wales which has consistently been much weaker for a generation.

In contrast, Labour has historically relied on an incumbent majority in Scotland and Wales to shore up a weaker English position vis-a-vis the Conservatives.

Labour is currently facing the prospect of a collapse in their vote across England, Wales and Scotland. This is similar to that suffered by the Conservatives in England in 1997 when the number of Conservative MPs halved. One crumb of comfort for Labour is that the Conservatives were completely extinguished in both Scotland and Wales in the 1990s, and have now started to recover lost ground.

However, the circumstances for Labour are less propitious. If the Conservatives adopt the policy as suggested by David Melding, then power will move towards the devolved Parliaments, which do not have Westminster style alternating Conservative / Labour majorities. Beefed-up devolved assemblies would permanently shift the political centre of gravity away from the Westminster arena where Labour has dominated Welsh and Scottish representation to proportionally-elected bodies.

In this scenario, how would Labour recover?

There are two further points I want to mention. Firstly, the hardcore Conservative vote in England is around 35% - even in 1997 is only dipped slightly below that figure. Labour’s comparative figure has been somewhat lower - below 30%. If some form of English Parliament or Grand Committee were implemented that may naturally favour the Conservatives.

Secondly, one difference between 1997 and 2009 is that Wales and Scotland have - for the first time - seen the Liberal Democrats and SNP operating administrations at their respective devolved assemblies.

Have enough voters in the socialist heartlands of Wales and Scotland now become sufficiently comfortable with alternatives to Labour to allow them a try at Westminster level?

And finally, will the “anti-incumbent” and “anti traditional politics” mood feed this tendency?

The nightmare for Labour is that strong “nationalist” parties will make them a natural minority party in all areas of the United Kingdom. The bitter reality would be that their own attempts at devolution, in creating the conditions to facilitate a nationalist upsurge, may make this a ratchet that cannot easily be reversed, preventing their recovery from a significant fall in their vote.

Facing this potential political storm, I think it is no surprise that so many Labour MPs are taking honourable-looking ways out of politics; they would be doing so even without the exposure of Expenses abuses.

Historical Data

I’ve tabulated figures for number of Westminster MPs and percentage of the vote in UK General Elections from 1979 to 2005. These are all from the Keele Political Science Resources site for each of the main parties. I have conflated SDP and Liberal figures where both parties competed.

If anyone has time to graph these figures, or add analysis based on figures from the devolved Parliaments, or tell me why I am completely wrong - I’d be pleased to add a link.

I’d also be grateful for any corrections if I have transcribed data incorrectly.

England

Year : Con : Lab : LibDem

1979 : 306 (49.18) : 203 (36.67) : 7 (14.93)

1983 : 362 (45.98) : 148 (26.94) : 13 (26.36)

1987 : 357 (46.15) : 155 (29.51) : 10 (23.80)

1992 : 319 (45.46) : 195 (33.93) : 10 (19.18)

1997 : 165 (33.70) : 328 (43.55) : 34 (17.95)

2001 : 165 (35.2) : 323 (41.4) : 40 (19.4)

2005 : 194 (35.74) : 286 (35.46) : 47 (22.91)

Scotland

Year : Con: Lab: SNP : Lib Dem