Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenka, may be stubbornly pretending that his country has no role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but his decision to dance to Moscow’s tune is one of his own choosing.
It was at the end of November last year that Lukashenka first publicly announced he would take Russia’s side in the event of war with Ukraine. For several months, his regime has consistently escalated its rhetoric around the situation on its southern borders, unleashing hysteria and repeating support for Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
While Belarusian government has for years had a close, if subordinate, relationship with Moscow, it has sought to balance with the West to extract financial and political gain from both sides. But the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections and their bloody aftermath have shaken the legitimacy of Lukashenka’s regime, and have left it isolated from Western institutions over its election falsifications and police repressions – forcing Lukashenka to increasingly turn to Putin for support.
