This week, Belarus and Russia are due to hold fresh military exercises in western and southern Belarus, provoking concern in light of the escalation over Ukraine. Indeed, the transfer of Russian troops to Belarus is unprecedented, and has emerged as an important component in the current crisis.
In just a year and a half, Belarus has turned from a country which sought dialogue over eastern Ukraine, including a peacekeeping role, to a potential front in a large-scale conflict between Russia and its southern neighbour. The mass crackdown on protest and dissent that followed the Belarusian 2020 presidential elections has led to a crisis of legitimacy for Lukashenka – and one that now, it appears, will be solved via the current Russia-Ukraine escalation.
Lukashenka announced his intention to hold unscheduled Belarusian-Russian exercises (Title: “Allied Resolve – 2022”) at the western and southern borders of Belarus at a meeting with army leaders on 17 January. On the same day, trains with Russian soldiers and military equipment from the Russian Far East began to arrive in the country. The timing of the exercises, which are set to run from 10 to 20 February, was made official only a day later.
