Two recent events suggest that relations between Russia and America could change for the better. Not only did the Kremlin react positively to the United States' decision to step down anti-rocket defence installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Dmitry Medvedev also made it clear for the first time during his New York trip that Moscow might join the international sanctions against Iran.
However, for the time being the situation remains uncertain. There are factors working for and against a rapprochement between Russia and the USA.
The man in the street
The attitude of many Russian citizens to America today is one of these. The conversation I had with a taxi driver in St. Petersburg is fairly typical. We were talking about the wealth of the US, and the driver said: "How could the Americans fail to be rich? They don't have to produce anything. They just print their dollars and sell them round the world." Interestingly, although he was driving a Ford, he still thought that Americans only got rich by selling dollars.
In fact, what the taxi driver really had in mind was the flotation of American government stock in various countries around the world. Thanks to the powerful propaganda campaign that has been under way in Russia over the last year, the state controlled mass media has interpreted the enormous state debt of the USA in a very unusual way. A year ago, few people in Russia even knew that America used loans to cover budget deficits. And those who did know did not find this information particularly interesting. But this autumn one often finds opinions like my taxi driver's all over the place in Internet discussion forums. Anti-American Russians use arguments like this to try and prove that Russia should not take the path of economic freedom and democracy that is associated with the United States. It is a myth that the US is a highly developed country, they say: Americans have nothing to sell except "paper".
The Kremlin's position
However, unlike those die-hard patriots, Russian officials have never declared their hostility towards America. The Kremlin's antagonism was mainly focused on NATO's eastward advancement. Those in charge of Moscow's foreign policy did not like the fact that countries which were part of the Eastern bloc 20 years ago (and some even in the USSR) could potentially end up as the bridgehead for attacks on Russia. It is unlikely that Putin, his defense ministers and foreign ministers really feared aggression from the West. But they were extremely unhappy at the prospect of any reduction in their influence in the world.
This should be a good moment to normalize relations. Not only have Americans withdrawn anti-rocket defense installations in the former Soviet sphere of influence, in Poland and the Czech Republic. Western countries have also not taken any substantial steps towards accepting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO - two nations with which Moscow has had extremely difficult relations of late.
What to do about Iran?
If the Kremlin wants to turn relations round, then this is the moment to respond positively. By not supporting Iran's aspiration to develop a nuclear capability, for instance. Especially as this capability is a double-edged sword. Anti-Russian sentiment is on the rise in Iran, and has already resulted in demonstrations over the past few months. Who knows how future rulers in Tehran will use their power?
While Ahmadinejad's followers may direct it against Israel, should opponents of the current president come to power, they might well turn their attention to Russia's southern borders. Moscow has not forgotten how quickly the Afghan Taliban escalated their attack in the north at the end of the 1990s, or how little time it took for Islamic fundamentalism to spread through the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. But the Taliban did not have nuclear weapons.
Establishing a new relationship with Washington would probably suit Dmitry Medvedev. In a recent article, I discussed Medvedev's statements on the need for rapprochement with western democracies. Now one of these, the most powerful, has given him the chance to demonstrate that he is an independent leader, not just Vladimir Putin's bag man.
Medvedev clearly wants the support of popular opinion. And he wants that support to be real, not just because he is the successor of a popular national leader. However, given the anti-American psychosis that has been developing in Russia recently, it is more likely to be nationalist politicians like Dmitry Rogozin - the current representative of Moscow at NATO - who will get that support. Medvedev will only emerge as an independent political figure if Russian-American relations change from fear and mistrust to pragmatism.
So it would suit the Russian president to meet Barack Obama halfway. It is no accident that they made progress during their recent meeting in New York. However, it looks unlikely that the Kremlin will really meet the White House halfway on the issue of Iran, for two reasons.
The political factor
The first is that tension in international relations has always served to bolster Vladimir Putin's popular rating. In recent years many Russians have felt that their country was surrounded by enemies. Russia has had difficult relations not only with the USA, but with the UK, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, and several other countries. When people feel that they are surrounded by enemies, they often rally around the leader, and react angrily against anyone with a democratic agenda. At such times, they associate democracy with working for the enemy. When the man in the street feels beleagured, it seems to him that those who support democracy, who insist on raising difficult, painful issues are acting unpatriotically and undermining the country's defence capability.
On several occasions Putin has used his position to say unpleasant things about his opponents. On one occasion he said they were ‘scavenging' off foreign leaders (meaning feeding off the left-overs, like jackals). Many who agree with Putin are of the view that ‘democrats' and foreigners wish to destroy Russia together.
A marked improvement in relations with the USA would clearly make it impossible to sustain this notion of Russia being surrounding by enemies. If America becomes a partner of Russia, it will be difficult to convince Russian citizens that ‘democrats scavenging off foreign leaders' are planning to do Russia down. Is Putin likely to abandon the anti-American and anti-democratic propaganda which has done so much boost support for him domestically, and to do so for the sake of improving relations with Obama? It is not entirely clear. But we should bear in mind that Medvedev does not have a real power base of his own, and is dependent on Putin in many respects. So the view of the previous president is likely to be decisive.
We should also bear in mind how many political analysts, commentators and specialists on international relations have made careers out of anti-Americanism in recent years. If Russia really does meet the US halfway, these die-hard patriots who are protecting their interests will bang the drum of anti-Americanism. They will bang it louder than ever before, and the din just might drown out the voices of the pragmatists.
The war of the pipelines
The other reason why Russia is unlikely to meet the US halfway on the Iranian issue is economic. It has to do with gas.
If Tehran faces universal condemnation of its nuclear programme, it may not be able to push that programme through to completion. Iran needs Russia not only in order to finish building its atomic electricity station in Bushehr, but also for uranium.
Will this be a tragedy for Iran? Not at all. From an economic point of view, Iran can easily do without nuclear energy, as it has plenty of oil and gas. However, developing these oil and gas fields usually requires major investments from leading trans-national corporations. So if Tehran wants to avoid plunging the country into poverty, it will have to come to terms with the West and reject the harsh anti-Israeli rhetoric which President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been adopting recently.
Supposing there really is a change in politics in Tehran. Supposing that thanks to the combined efforts of the USA, EU and Russia, Ahmadinejad falls, and pragmatists come into power who aspire to modernize the country without rejecting Islamic values, while rejecting Islamic fundamentalism. Supposing that trans-national corporations are allowed into Iran; that all sanctions are abolished, and that the country starts to earn substantial money by exporting its energy resources.
If this were to happen, one of the most promising areas for export would be the European Union. The Nabucco pipeline, which is planned to provide gas to south-east and central Europe, needs Iranian gas. Nabucco may get built without it. But if it did, it would only carry fuel from Azerbaijan and perhaps Turkmenistan.
So the result of the rapprochement of Russia with the US would ultimately be to destroy the barriers that divide Iran and the EU today. Nabucco would then become a serious competitor to Yuzhny Potok, the Russian pipeline which Putin proposes building along the bottom of the Black Sea, with the aim of selling gas to more or less the same markets as Nabucco. This the Kremlin does not want to do, as far as we can tell from all its recent activities. Putin has staked too much in recent years on this aspect of his gas pipeline policy. Indeed, right now gas is virtually the Kremlin's only means of exerting pressure on its neighbors.
