Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena, May 2016. Frank Augstein/Press Association. All rights reserved.While most analysts naturally tend to focus on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan increasing his powers following the highly contested vote last Sunday, the introduction of a presidential system could unexpectedly favor his opponents.
This might sound surprising given the polarization and arguments during the referendum, but it is based on recent cases, like the 2015 Sri Lankan elections, and the fact that a presidential system, especially a two-round one, is more likely to incentivize defections within the ruling AKP.
International media and organizations have rightly criticized the procedures and timing of President Erdoğan’s April 16 referendum. Although those who follow Turkey are not unfamiliar to depressing news titles, the most recent ones such as RIP Turkey, 1921-2017, Intimidation and Unfair Campaigning and No hope for Turkey point to an irreversible transition to authoritarianism and argue that there is no silver lining to be sought in the aftermath of the Turkish constitutional referendum.
