In a further fracturing of the very shaky ceasefire between Iran and the United States, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) this week shot down a US Army Apache attack helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.
At any other time, the US would have seen this as an unacceptable act of war requiring a very strong reaction. But where Donald Trump’s unpredictable social media output would usually have breathed hellfire and damnation, this time it talked a proportionate response.
It seemed a welcome sign that Trump’s advisers, and maybe even the president himself, are having to accept that this war will not be won by bombs, missiles and drones, and will have to end in compromise.
As domestic support for the war is ebbing away in the US, the mood in Washington is changing. Opposition to the war is growing, while support for Israel and its prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is dwindling.
A week ago, this was all reasonably obvious, but the past few days have given a sharp indication of how difficult it will be to move to negotiated settlements in the double conflicts involving Israel and Lebanon, and the US and Iran.
The recent sequence of events started with a warning from the IRGC leadership in Tehran: Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanese towns and cities, including the widespread targeting of health facilities, violated the temporary ceasefire and must stop. Instead, Netanyahu ordered more attacks, including on the Lebanese port city of Tyre, which has been subject to around 30 direct air raids by the IDF in the past three months.
As well as healthcare facilities, the IDF attacks have also been aimed at critical urban infrastructure, such as power and communications lines, water treatment plants and sewage treatment systems. The New York Times even reports the probable use by the Israelis of white phosphorus, an incendiary substance that spontaneously ignites on contact with air and is exceptionally difficult to extinguish.
The IDF is also continuing its practice of ordering mass evacuations of both urban populations and rural communities.
Yet despite the extent of the force it is using, the IDF has failed to destroy Hezbollah. There is little sign of that changing; consider that the IDF is still unable to control Hamas in Gaza despite having destroyed so many urban areas.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has made it abundantly clear that Israel is stepping up its plans to annex the great majority of Gaza. Over 50% of the land, including most of the area previously used for intensive horticulture, has been taken over by Israel. That is now increasing to 70% of Gaza, with yet more Palestinians being forced into overcrowded camps.
Taken alongside the increasing number of illegal settlements as well as Jewish settler violence in the Occupied West Bank, and the move to control substantial parts of southern Lebanon, the immediate prospects for a peaceful outcome are minimal.
A remarkable indicator of this is that, as settler violence against Palestinians continues, Amnesty International reports on a “Great Israeli Real Estate Event” scheduled to take place in London this weekend, in which land in illegal settlements will be marketed to the Israeli diaspora in the UK.
Two substantial issues remain. The first has been glaringly obvious for over 30 months: Israel is radicalising many thousands of young Palestinians to resist the IDF, even to the extent of sacrificing their lives. That alone means Netanyahu and his government are engaged in an unwinnable war.
Then there is the second issue: overseas opposition to Israel is growing in some unexpected quarters. Germany is historically reluctant to criticise Israel in public, yet a pro-Palestinian wave of support has been seen in universities across the country.
In Britain, Labour MP Melanie Ward has brought attention to UK charities that she says have given at least £28m illegal Jewish settlements across the occupied West Bank. Foreign secretary Yvette Cooper has responded by announcing that the Charity Commission will investigate the organisations’ links to the settlements and whether they can retain their charity status.
This comes in the week that the Foreign Office announced plans for the UK to bring “together Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand and Norway to deliver coordinated sanctions against networks financing and enabling settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, and firmly advises British businesses against activity in illegal Israeli settlements.”
Despite the Labour government’s antagonism to pro-Palestinian activists, The Guardian reports that some activists believe there is a “sea-change” underway in government circles, aided by the strongly pro-Palestinian stance of leading Green Party politicians, including leader Zac Polanski.
Successive Israeli governments have spent decades cultivating support through well-funded lobbies in these two key European states. That support is fraying, but what is far more significant is the shift in attitudes in the US. A trenchant piece in the influential Wall Street Journal, entitled ‘Netanyahu has lost Middle America’, concludes that whatever happens in the Gaza conflict, the loss of public US support “has been catastrophic and won’t be reversed quickly.”
That conclusion, in that journal, may turn out to be the most significant development in a singularly chaotic week.
