There are supposedly two ceasefires in force in the Middle East. One is between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon; the other, between the United States and Iran. Both are fragile. Neither is bringing peace much closer.
The difficulty is that these conflicts are not separate. Hezbollah is an Iranian ally; Israel’s war in Lebanon is tied to its wider regional confrontation with Tehran; and Donald Trump’s effort to end the US-Iran war is constrained by Benjamin Netanyahu’s political needs at home. What looks, at first glance, like two ceasefires is better understood as one unstable regional pause in fighting.
Finding a way forward is difficult. But the dynamics of the two conflicts can be analysed – and that may at least help explain why the present moment remains so dangerous.
