Predator drone. Wikimedia Commons / US Air Force photo/Lt Col Leslie Pratt. Public domain.Two recent columns in this series examined the status of ISIS, contrasting the many press reports saying the movement was in retreat with some more independent analysis (see "America vs ISIS, the prospect" [15 April 2016] and "ISIS in action: Tel Askuf decoded" [6 May 2016]). In the past week there have been further indications that ISIS is proving more resilient than expected, especially as the tempo for the Iraqi army assault on Mosul, with powerful help from the United States military, falters (see Liz Sly, “The War against Islamic State hits hurdles just as the U.S. military gears up”, Washington Post, 8 May 2016).
What is clear is the determination of the United States and its coalition partners to avoid committing large ground forces to the war. The deep failures in Afghanistan and Iraq inflicted harsh lessons which have been learned, at least in respect of the need to avoid deploying tens of thousands of "boots on the ground". There may by contrast be plenty of special forces, airstrikes and armed drones; these represent the changing nature of the wars now being fought by the west.
As this kind of war intensifies, though – and with every prospect of major operations against ISIS in Libya – there are clear indications that the move to remote warfare carries unexpected consequences (see "The drone-war blowback", 29 September 2011). Nowhere is this more clear than with the proliferation of armed drones, which are still seen as weapons of choice in Washington, Paris, London and Tel Aviv.
