Many questions remain over last weekend’s incident at RAF Fairford, which was initially widely reported as a thwarted terror attack with a possible connection to Iran. Whether that was the case remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the incident has shone a spotlight on the base’s role in US military operations – to the potential embarrassment of the British government.
To put it in historical context, almost 70 years ago in January 1957, the US Air Force put on a remarkable demonstration of global airpower. Three B-52 heavy bombers landed at Castle Air Force Base in California after having flown nonstop around the world, supported by multiple aerial-to-air refuellings.
While the Pentagon still regards heavy bombers as key to its global power projection, it no longer attempts ultra-long-range operations, instead relying on three overseas air bases across the world. One of these is RAF Fairford, where US forces in the 501st Combat Support Wing are stationed. These troops can handle any of the Pentagon’s fleet of heavy bombers, the most important being the B-1B.
Now this base in the heart of rural Gloucestershire is becoming singularly important, with growing global significance. Donald Trump’s threat to “annihilate” Iran unless it accepts his version of a ceasefire would depend substantially on the US Air Force bombers operating from Fairford. Why? As so often, the devil is in the detail, but the main reason is that the war is going very badly for the US president.
When the combined military power of the United States and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, it was expected that they would win the conflict within days, or at most a couple of weeks.
Israel planned to assassinate the Tehran leadership, support an expected popular uprising, see the regime replaced with an acceptable secular leadership, terminate nuclear ambitions and destroy the power of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Trump’s war aims were far from clear but would have largely fitted in with those of Binyamin Netanyahu. Iran, meanwhile, simply wanted the state to survive in its current form.
In the event, while Ayatollah Khamenei and some key religious and civil leaders were indeed assassinated within the first week, the IRGC had planned in detail for that kind of assault and quickly replaced those killed. The balance of power in Tehran took on a harder-line stance; there was no uprising, and any domestic opposition to the regime has been rigorously and often violently suppressed.
Similarly, despite the substantial use of force, the US/Israeli assault has failed to destroy IRGC capabilities, while Iran has maintained its ability to target US facilities in the region, often causing substantial damage. Official reports from congressional watchdogs suggest the costs to the US have been very high, with scores of planes and drones destroyed on the ground at US air bases in the region.
Iranian attacks have also damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and military structures in US bases in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with a key logistics hub in Bahrain so badly affected in repeated strikes since February that it remains out of action even now. Nine thousand US citizens have been evacuated from the region, and the US has been forced to use so many anti-missile defences that the Pentagon is running short of stocks that could take up to five years to replenish.
In short, Trump’s war against Iran is going badly, and the Pentagon is deeply reluctant to countenance any kind of ground war. That leaves the US president with two choices: agree a peace deal with Tehran and risk being seen as a loser, or escalate the conflict to a renewed intensive aerial bombing campaign.
His ego makes the latter option more likely, which is where the UK becomes involved. Any US air strikes will rely on the use of B-1B Lancer heavy bombers, which can each be armed with at least 22 tonnes of guided bombs and cruise or ballistic missiles – such as 24 2,000lb bombs – which they carry in internal bomb bays, making them harder to track on radar.
In total, the US Air Force has 44 B-1B bombers, with a maximum of 21 available worldwide for bombing attacks at any one time. Iran’s ability to attack US bases in the region means it is best not to station the planes there, and while it would be possible to fly them from the US, Gloucestershire is around 4,000 miles closer – B-1Bs launched from there will require far less air-to-air refuelling.
It’s for this reason that 15 of the 21 ‘mission-available’ B-1B bombers were relocated to Fairford as Trump’s attack on Iran began, with the UK Ministry of Defence’s claim that they can be used only in a “defensive” mode fanciful given that Trump was the main aggressor in the first place. There may already be questions to answer over whether the planes were used against civilians in the early days of the conflict, yet they would undoubtedly be used on a much larger and more destructive scale if Trump decides to act on his threat to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age”.
In extreme circumstances, the UK could withdraw all support for such a bombing campaign that utilised the B-1Bs (and some other US planes operating from Fairford and other RAF bases in the UK). But this kind of action has not, as far as is known, been contemplated before, and would no doubt leave the US president livid and unpredictable.
A better initial way forward could involve the British prime minister and other global leaders putting behind-the-scenes pressure on Washington to accept a peace deal by making clear their strong opposition to a return to full-scale war. An uneasy pause in the conflict has now lasted over three months, with both sides continuing low-level military actions. Some negotiations are ongoing, but there is little sign of a permanent end to the war.
If Trump cannot be persuaded to agree a peace deal, the UK will be heavily involved as the war continues and intensifies, with RAF Fairford becoming a key focus of attention globally. Andy Burnham’s government risks potential involvement in war crimes in a US/Israel-led conflict that has already killed and injured thousands of Iranians.
