Catherine Reilly continues her coverage of the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. You can read the rest of the series here, here,here, here, here, here, here, here and here and hot off the press there is an overview of the Irish 'no' on openDemocracy by Joseph Curtin and Johnny Ryan and a European view from John Palmer
Catherine Reilly (Dublin, Metro Éireann): It has come as a slight relief to me that my own constituency - Dublin North - was among ten out of the 43 constituencies across the Republic of Ireland to vote for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. I say ‘relief’ as I had erroneously guessed, in this most public of spaces, that Ireland would vote Yes. This predication had been partly based upon a reasoning that my own area, with its urban-rural and population socio-economic mix, would be a fair barometer of how the treaty result would pan out generally - and I thought the local indications were that we were headed for a yes. Well, my credibility (what’s left of it, anyway) has enjoyed a tiny reprieve in that I was right about my neighbours, but not about the rest of the country.
Interestingly, it looks like Dublin’s commuter belt constituencies such as my own Dublin North and Meath East, for example, alongside staunchly middle class electoral areas like Dublin South, were the Yes crew. Indeed, in regional terms, the result was closest in Dublin, with the No side winning by 51% to 49%. Always too close to call.
Overall, the Lisbon Treaty was defeated by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%.
The more discernibly working class electoral areas, and rural communities, are being credited with swinging the pendulum. Why? To me, the economy’s current shaky period is probably more than a clue.
Interestingly, listening to radio discussions today, it seems that some voters were confused (yes, more confusion) about the ballot paper itself. In recent weeks, they have heard of nothing but ‘Lisbon’, and it has been easily forgotten that the Irish vote was actually on the proposed amendment of the Constitution - in order for Lisbon to be ratified by the Irish parliament. Indeed, there was no mention of ‘Lisbon’ or ‘Europe’ on the ballot paper.
In any case, if you want to feel like you are stuck in the middle of an almighty family row that the neighbours can hear through the walls, tune in to Irish television tonight (www.rte.ie) The mood among Ireland’s political ruling elite is dark, dank and depressing. Politicians belonging to the main parties have been described by reporters as ‘ashen faced’, and the Irish public is being warned that their vote will have consequences. There is a ‘blank’ before consequences which no-one really knows how to fill.
The Yes side are saying this vote creates a new distance between Ireland - the EU’s best pupil in recent years - and Europe. However, one No commentator remarked tonight that while it may have distanced Ireland from Europe’s political elite, it has brought it closer to Europe’s people. My parents - lifetime voters - ripped up their voting card slips because they couldn't make up their minds. This makes me think that Ireland as a whole probably did the correct thing.
What I do know though, is that somewhere amid Dublin’s corridors of power, someone is already thinking of Lisbon 2.
