Turkish nationalists march against PKK in Istanbul, September 8. Demotix/Avni Kanton. All rights reserved.The Middle East has been, and will continue to be, the toughest neighbourhood on the planet. It is a region marred by turmoil, conflict and displacements, intervened by periods of lull and wholesale repression. These patterns are not entirely chaotic or random. They are ‘orderly’, structured and inextricably linked to changes in global power dynamics. They change and evolve with the emergence or collapse of global drivers, superpowers.
The demise of the Ottoman Empire triggered a seismic restructuring of the Middle East Order which had been in place for centuries. The British and French empires redrew the map of the Middle East, carving up their spheres of influence. The collapse of the Russian empire, the subsequent rise of the Soviet Union, and the rise and fall of Nazi Germany also affected the structure of power in the region. The post-WWII division between East and West throughout the Cold War, further consolidated these power structures, making them immune to coups d'états or revolutions.
New drivers in the region
While the collapse of the Soviet Union paved the way for a wave of democratisation in Eastern Europe, the Middle East was more resilient. The Middle East Order would have to wait until the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’ for its own wave of change to be felt. This led to long-standing hegemonic regimes being overthrown at unprecedented speed. These triggered a transitional period between the Middle East’s old established order and whatever may be next; all we know is that the ‘Arab Spring’ and its impact is far from over.
