A stable bridge?
Every now and then, like Boris Karloff, politics just kind of creeps up on you.
Witness the sudden rise to global fame of French foreign minister and renowned poet Dominique de Villepin over the last few months. Before the tussle between the US and the UN over Iraq, it is unlikely that many people outside France had heard of Dominique, let alone admired his impeccable tailoring.
The latest phenomenon to emerge from the shadows into political prominence comes not in the form of a wordsmith with a taste for international relations, but from a nation of 39 million people.
Thats right, you guessed it Poland.
For various reasons, this state at the heart of Europe has exploded onto the international scene in recent weeks. At this rate, the Diary predicts, it will soon be again, some Poles with long memories might say the most powerful nation in Europe (despite Luxembourgs military ambitions).
So, whats going on? And why is President Bush so eager to make a stop in Poland when he visits his least favourite continent later this month?
The short answer is that Poland (or at least its government) threw total support behind the US action in Iraq. The long answer is ... well, too long to squeeze into a line.
Lets just say that Poland has become the focal point for Donald Rumsfelds old-new Europe divide. If the anachronistic beasts of France and Germany symbolise the Cassandra-like anti-American negativity of old Europe, then Poland leads the dynamic pro-American post-communist future of new Europe.
How can this be? Is Poland not also the impoverished carcass of communist failure where farmers drive malnourished cows instead of motorised tractors over their barren fields, unemployment is stuck at 20%, the social democratic government of Leszek Miller is deeply unpopular, and the prospect of EU membership raises a complex mixture of economic fear, cultural pollution and thoughts of emigration?
Well, yes, that too. The Diary sees at least two inconsistencies going on in this new order of international power as it involves Poland.
The first is that, for years, the EU has been panicking about the effect its eastwards expansion will have on its existing prosperity. Just saying the words Polish farmers is enough to send a Brussels bureaucrat into a cold sweat. Textbooks are full of warnings about embracing a country with a comparatively low gross domestic product (GDP) suddenly, Greece and Portugal will be among the EUs wealthiest members! Those Polish farmers, we are told, will destroy the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) which, of course, is otherwise such a blinding success.
But now, as if none of these Euro-cold sweats and Brussels-blind panics had ever happened, the US is pointing to allies such as Poland as the architects of a new upwardly-mobile freedom-loving Europe, willing to discard its holocaust-ridden and Marxist-laden history, and start anew.
The second inconsistency resides in a currently fashionable theory of US-Europe relations, as articulated most famously by Robert Kagan: while the US is necessarily Hobbesian and ready to kick ass in a harsh and brutal world, Europe is Kantian, unrealistic and unwilling to do anything but debate, create legal frameworks, and abuse the benefits of the US military while not getting one of its own.
This all gets a bit tricky when you consider recent developments. Kagans theory is meant as a criticism of Europe and it is a clever criticism, because, effectively, Europe cant win. The Iraq war is a case in point. Old Europe opposed the war. New Europe supported the US. But does this mean new Europe is more realistic (read: more Hobbesian) than old Europe? Poland, after all, is still relying as much on US power to get the job done as is France, only Poland supports it. The US is still the worlds policeman. But then, if old Europe starts to threaten Kagans stereotype and develops a military force of its own (witness the recent mini defence summit in Brussels) ... well, then old Europe is simply trying to rival the US by militarising its anti-American instincts.
A classic example of these overlapping logics came this week. Washington, to the surprise of many, and the shock of others, has asked Poland to take control of one of the four post-conflict zones in Iraq (the others will be controlled by the US and Britain). Poland sent 200 special forces troops to the military campaign in Iraq. Its unwavering loyalty to the US (who saved it from an earlier evil empire, the Soviet Union) has been rewarded. Suddenly, this country which has in history been far more occupied than it has ever occupied others is set to control 80,000 square kilometres of land between Baghdad and Basra (including Najaf and Karbala) comprising three million people (it was originally offered an even larger zone in northern Iraq, but turned it down).
Yes, Poland is set to facilitate democracy and economic revival in Iraq. (BBC)
The new Polish-controlled zone will require 7,000 troops. Poland is sending 2,000. It is asking Nato for the other 5,000, subject to Polish control.
Revelling in its new role on the international stage, Poland delighted in inviting big brother Germany to contribute troops to its security force. The Germans were not amused and flatly rejected the offer. As the New York Times judged: irritating Berlin ... brought [Poland] a perverse satisfaction.
And lets not forget Paris. Chiracs warning to infantile new Europe to follow the lead of old Europe or not be European continues to ring around the centre and east of the continent. Poland, much to the chagrin of Paris, is to get twenty-seven seats on the EU Council of Ministers when and if (the referendum on membership will be held in June) it joins the club next year. And theyre still drinking Polish vodka (not Freedom vodka) in Washington.
Clashes seem inevitable. As Quentin Peel says in the Financial Times, In Brussels, people are already asking why Poland should expect to get big handouts from the EU budget if it promptly spends them on a US exercise in Iraq.
In the NYT, Krzysztof Bobinski, editor of Unia & Polska, argues that Poland doesnt have the capacity to get its own home into shape, much less run another country like Iraq.
The talk is of Poland as the new Germany the bridge between the US and the EU. Let Poland be Poland, President Reagan urged in the days of communist rule. Today, which Poland is the real Poland: the US version or the EU version? And can its twin support for US military security and EU membership be happily reconciled?
In the current transatlantic climate, which is frostier than Polish farmland in winter, the answers to these questions could hardly be more important.
A political let-off
And they say politics has no heart anymore.
Well tell that to Colombian President Alvaro Uribe who showed a compassion this week that will have you blubbing into your handkerchief.
Uribe was visiting the northern city of Bucaramanga when he whipped off his jacket and rolled up his shirtsleeves. Somewhere between his shoulders and his bodyguards, his wallet fell loose.
One potential voter pounced. By the next morning, when Uribe had bills to pay and realised his wallet was missing, thirty-two transactions had been made on his credit card, adding up to $4,225.
The wallet had included Uribes identity card, as well as a piece of paper with his card number scribbled on it.
Oops!
The police, you wont be surprised to hear, were quickly on the case. The thief was soon apprehended.
But Uribe insisted his assailant be let free.
They are poor people, he said. We have to give them a second opportunity.
Wow! It sure beats kissing babies.
(Source: BBC News Online)
Tea for 140 million
To Bangladesh, where a new economic logic reigns.
Amazingly, Bangladesh, the worlds fifth biggest tea exporter, may soon start importing tea.
Why? Because of internal demand.
The consumption of tea in Bangladesh is so high that the country cannot produce enough of it. According to Sahm Tauid, Chairman of the Bangladesh Tea Board, Internal consumption is rising by 3.5% annually against nearly 1% rise in production. (Reuters)
Bangladesh produces roughly 55 million kilograms of tea a year, a figure it hopes to double by 2022. The country exports 10 million kilo less tea than it did ten years ago.
But at the current rate of drinking, by 2015 Bangladesh could be importing its tea.
Now if thats not a sign the worlds gone mad...
Quotes of the week
Europe will only be able to look at the United States not as a subordinate if it becomes a great Europe, not only great in the economic sense but also important in the sense of military authoritativeness. This will only be possible when Europe expands its borders to encompass Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation.
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi
Hes somebody everyone can work with. Look at the fact that theres been no backbiting about him. Thats a miracle in this town.
Dov Zakheim, a US under-secretary of defense, on Paul Bremer, President Bushs new special envoy to Iraq.
Gratitude toward the achievements of the United States under the governments of Roosevelt and Truman does not necessarily include unreflected partisanship toward George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld.
Andre Heller, an Austrian poet and singer who was criticised by the US Embassy this week for making these remarks during a commemoration of the 58th anniversary of the liberation of the Mauthausen concentration camp.
I have never turned tail and run and shirked my responsibility.
Republican leader in the US House of Representatives, Tom Delay, denouncing the action of fifty Democratic politicians in Texas who fled the state to avoid a re-zoning vote. Click here for full story.
I cant say that I take anything coming from a quarter like that as a compliment.
American artist Rowena Morrill on discovering Saddam Hussein hung two of her works on his walls.
If you take a low humour view of it, thats really in your mind, not mine.
James Peterson, New York artist, whose memorial to the attack on the World Trade Center was a painted sign that read Caution, low flying planes.
Its not going to be easy.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell before boarding the plane to meet with Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
Not on the horizon.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on the possibility of discussing Israeli settlements.
Contact the Diary Editor: dominic.hilton@openDemocracy.net
