The year 2015 has repeatedly disappointed those who had high expectations that the UK economy was back to “normal times” and destined to see significant continued economic “growth.” At the start of the year, there was a general expectation that inflation would start to rise after the sudden fall in oil prices, and that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would start, gently, the process of raising interest rates as “slack” in the economy disappeared.
In reality, and despite some positive results (the number of those in some form of employment, for example) those expectations have gently deflated as 2015 progressed. Most economists had forecast annual GDP increase of over 2.5%. The most recent ONS estimates, up to Q3, show a continuing slide in the annual rate of change per quarter. The annual rate of real GDP change in 2014 per Quarter was 2.8%, 3%, 2.8% and 2.8%. But in 2015, a series of steps down:
Q1 2.5%
