“To date, Ukraine has liberated over 54% of Russian-occupied Ukraine and they continue to retain the strategic advantage.” That was the message from General Mark Milley, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a recent meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contacts Group (UDCG) in Germany.
If that sounded as if victory was imminent, Milley also stressed that the war would continue through the winter and until Russia was defeated.
One of the problems for analysts is that such a statement, as well as claims from Russian sources, make it difficult to assess what is really happening on the ground. Strictly speaking, Milley is correct that Ukraine maintains the advantage, but the country’s autumn offensive is proving far more difficult than expected and the war is far from over. Analysts now expect it to continue through 2024 and into 2025, with its outcome depending largely on whether Joe Biden is re-elected in the US next November.
