Catherine Reilly continues her coverage of the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. You can read the rest of the series here, here, here and here.
Catherine Reilly (Dublin, Metro Eireann): On Tuesday, a Danish foreign affairs journalist in Dublin asked me for my ‘call’ on the Lisbon Treaty: which way would it go? There’s no need for the drum roll: I responded that it would be passed, with the caveat that if it had been put to the increasingly disgruntled Irish public a year or two later, it could well be a completely different story. I’m no Nostradamus though, and no commentator either, so this departure from fence-sitting has made for a few nights’ uncomfortable sleep.
My personal feeling is that anti-Lisbon sentiments are gathering pace, but whether or not this is enough to impact upon the relatively slim lead of the Yes side, and turn the over 25 per cent of undecided voters towards a No vote, I’m not sure - and anyone who says otherwise is hedging their bets.
As to the anti-Lisbon arguments, one major issue is emerging: credibility, credibility, credibility. The No camp are evoking dark scenarios of European interference with Ireland’s corporation tax, of the legalisation of abortion and loss of power at the EU table. The latter point seems to ring true, though the first two arguments are significantly less provable. And that’s the problem: no-one really knows who to believe because the text of the Lisbon Treaty can be read in so many different ways. It is all a matter of interpretation.
Indeed, the very situation whereby Ireland is the only EU country holding a referendum on the treaty (as it is legally required to do under the Irish Constitution) is troubling for some. The Lisbon Treaty proposes more involvement of national parliaments in EU affairs, and puts forward a Citizens’ Initiative, whereupon one million citizens from Member States would be able to call on the European Commission to suggest new laws. But when such proposals are not put to all the EU’s citizens in the first place, how can their value be truly accredited and really believed in?
Of course, the British government now face the possibility of sharing the democratic ‘burden’ with the Irish. Britain’s High Court is set to hear a legal challenge to prime minister Gordon Brown’s refusal to honour a Labour party pledge to hold a vote on an EU constitution.
Regardless of one’s views on the treaty itself, surely the entry of British voters into the fray would be a triumph for democracy in a Europe that seems to value the concept less and less.
