Damian O'Loan (Paris): Bastille Day in France was the first to be celebrated under President Sarkozy. M Sarkozy celebrated his first as President of the EU, and the day was a rare success as the Mediterranean Union was inaugurated. A busy day in a busy time, but what does all this mean across the Channel?
It is no secret that Sarkozy was bitterly disappointed by the Irish No, that his plans for the presidency were thereby irrevocably altered. Opinion in France itself is deeply divided on Lisbon; the opposition Socialist Party were unable to hold a line in the parliamentary vote on ratification. There are contradictory reports on whether the treaty would pass or not if there were a French referendum.
Equally conflicting are responses to the Irish No. To the French, the idea that it was an anti-abortion protest beggars belief; special treatment on Commissioners is seen as simply impossible. The 'straight talk' argument is met with a wistful sigh here where many did read the old Constitution. Several times I've been thanked – if not for the No itself, for the spanner in the works of an unpopular President –difficult to explain that as a Northerner I was due no credit. Imaginative negotiation will be needed when the clear No is reduced, in this way, to some peculiar objections.
Division in France is manifold – jealous of London's dynamism, but wary of globalisation; proud of its human rights history while racism is rife. Faced with division, the President does not tread lightly - he acts frantically, as though the cats were away.
A divided opposition is his element – against this backdrop, Sarkozy will ruthlessly pursue his own agenda. He has been pushing others like Poland to ratify the Treaty and last night demanded that the Irish return to the polls.
While the British Government's stance on Europe remains in question, it will appreciate in Sarkozy some very British priorities.
His priorities for the Presidency are climate change, immigration and defense. This ties in nicely with the Mediterranean Summit. On immigration, he seeks cooperation from countries to which the undocumented will be returned. He can negotiate with dictators, indeed at times he puts Thatcher and Brown to shame. On defense, he seeks a non-army of 60,000, which Britain, as the world's biggest arms exporter, may find difficult to oppose, and EUFor has already found a place under Sarkozy. It remains to be seen whether he will harness African deserts as a source of solar energy for Europe – oil prices may render the investment indispensable. Certainly this would solve Brown's nuclear headache.
While France worries what shame its 'bling bling' representative may bring, Britain should find him an easier pill to swallow. Britain will be a part of the new Europe, and will face no socialist conspiracy under Sarkozy. London-Dublin relations may be tested. Brown's diplomacy, though, will be made easier by a French/EU President who feels as strongly about America as Blair and Ahern did. The fawning welcome for Ms Bruni and her husband in London spoke volumes on the acceptance of a shared celebrity-culture and liberal-economics driven vision. Who will be the 51st state now – Britain, France or Europe?
