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The problems of deliberative polls: Effects

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The academic debate
The academic debate

As the academic debate over the merits of deliberative democracy and deliberative polling heats up following Professor Lupia's initial criticisms (and the response of deliberative polling continues to consider the potential effects:

The Tomorrow's Europe poll first requires a stronger and more clearly stated set of goals than appears on their website. Then, turn those goals into hypotheses that can be evaluated with data that you are able to collect.

Implicit in the presentation is the notion that a DP leads to better or more refined citizen opinions. There are ways to turn such claims into testable hypotheses.

For example, if an experiment in the scientific sense were actually being run, you could compare participants' abilities to accomplish certain politically relevant tasks with or without the DP stimulus. Depending on the nature of the experiment, you could also document which aspect of the DP were effective (briefing materials, presentations, conversations with others, etc.) and which were not.

You could also determine whether or not DPs have different effects than other communication mediums, such as newspapers. If you are not attempting to make such comparisons amongst communicative modes, then you will be assuming your answer to such questions rather than running true experiments.

In addition, if you want to claim that the effects of a DP are anything more than transitory, it will be important to compare the opinions of participants and a non-participant control group weeks and months after the event.

openDemocracy Author

Arthur Lupia

Hal R. Varian Collegiate Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan, Research Professor at the Institute for Social Research, Principal Investigator, American National Election Studies, and Co-Principal Investigator of the TESS Project, Arthur Lupia's work focuses on how information and institutions affect policy and politics, and particularly on how people make decisions when they lack information.

His work provides insights on voting, civic competence, legislative-bureaucratic relations, parliamentary governance, and political communication. His books include The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? (1998), Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality (2000), Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Reacts to Direct Democracy (2001), and Positive Changes in Political Science: The Legacy of Richard D. McKelvey's Most Influential Writings (2007).
His articles and editorials have appeared in many respected journals and newspapers.

He is a John Simon Guggenheim Foundation Fellow (2006-2007) and was previously a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (1999-2000). He was elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2003 and as a Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2007.

Now, as a Principal Investigator of the American National Election Studies (www.electionstudies.org), he is helping to introduce many new procedural and methodological innovations to one of the world's best-known scientific studies of elections. 

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