Damian O'Loan (Paris): Amidst the problems at Stormont, nationalist Mark Durkan has given a reminder of the need to move towards voluntary coalition. The SDLP leader suggests eventually replacing the Nationalist/Unionist “designation” system of the Good Friday and St Andrew's agreements with the forthcoming NI Bill of Rights, alongside a weighted majority, as the basis of government.
The statement has proved controversial, with much coherent argument here and elsewhere. What is certain is that Nationalists are asking questions about Unionist commitment to genuine power-sharing, and that Sinn Fein needs to do more to ensure Unionism's trust. What is not certain is how both sides can be forced to cooperate, or indeed if they should. What are the competing interests the SDLP leader is considering in his statement?
Firstly, it is important to note that the level of disagreement we are now seeing, at the heart of the problem, is not likely to last. We are still concluding arguments that began before St Andrew's, but once passed, the rather more embarrassing problem that the parties share much more than divides them will become much more apparent. They can't agree on a stadium, but they did manage a Budget.
Nowhere is this more true than the devolution of Policing & Justice: the disagreement over timing masks a shared interest in sustaining the current prosecution service, minimal historical enquiries, restorative justice and more. Divisions such as approval of judicial appointments by the Office of First and Deputy First Ministers will be easier, open to rotation, and much less likely to allow attack from those outside the agreements.
Once these problems are surmounted, the common approach to government will contribute more to stability at Stormont. Issues falsely pitting two communities interests as contradictory will decrease. The left-right issues will be more common, and even traditional divides will be interpreted, in part, through this prism. The absence of a left, at times even of a centre, will then become clear – this may change the shape of opposition.
The question is whether Northern Ireland is better served by the present designation system, in both the short- and long-term, or by a high threshold without it. For Mark Durkan, it is also whether Nationalists' interests are better served on these bases.
As the status quo is as guaranteed by the triple lock, an agreed system of mutual veto intended as a last resort, as it would be under a 65 or 70 per cent threshold, Nationalists have nothing to lose or gain in the short term on issues requiring agreed movement – Unionism wins both ways. The SDLP may gain from the absurd SF negotiating failures being exposed and abandoned, but may lose from the resulting socially and economically conservative Assembly that would be the inevitable consequence of implementing voluntary coalition; Sinn Fein, traditionally further to the left, may lose more. The possibility of a successful Alliance Justice Minister may be worrying the SDLP, but this may in fact help the party. It could move voters away from the fundamentalist positions towards the centre, stopping within nationalism at Mr Durkan.
Under both systems, any Bill of Rights that would improve Nationalist chances of changing the situation of Unionist dominance and intransigence at Stormont would be nayed by the Assembly. Unionism's approach to the Bill's preparation was negative and placed it at odds with almost all other members on the Forum, except the CBI and the churches. Either the Human Rights Commission will produce an insubstantial document, it will be refused, or it will be absorbed into a UK-wide Act that may be conceived to undo some of the protections contained in the HRA. This is not a secure replacement for the GFA, so greater reassurance would be required for Nationalism. The fragility of the Bill of Rights was not dealt with by Mr Durkan, though that was been missing from Sinn Fein's line of attack.
There can be no question, though, that in the long-term stability means the possibility of voluntary coalition. The SDLP may be wishing to hasten or lead that process; ironically ironically it may be more effective simply not to act. Sinn Fein's negotiation failure speaks, deafeningly, for itself. The Stormont impasse is an indictment of both parties involved. Yet Mark Durkan's timing allows accusations of putting party politics ahead of nationalist welfare, and that argument ought to have been pre-empted. The best option for everyone may be to wait until the extremes implode, regain public support for the centre ground and allow others to follow the centre's leadership into voluntary coalition.
