The Dance by Henri Matisse, 1910. (Fair use)
After the act of self-mutilation, Britain is bleeding – and its very survival in under threat. The current course of events suggests the United Kingdom will unravel, while triggering a series of referendums that may fatally wound the European Union. The forces of reaction – from Le Pen in France to Wilders in the Netherlands – are circling like vultures.
First, let’s be clear about the severity of the crisis for Britain. The financial sector, whose tax receipts bolstered New Labour’s social programme, looks set to lose 100,000 jobs in the event of a Brexit, on top of the 250,000 lost since 2008. This represents a serious threat to the public finances, and to London itself – which may have already squandered its right to call itself the world’s financial capital. At this time of extreme insecurity, Britain is effectively leaderless, and seemingly without a plan of action.
Public anger, instead of being assuaged at ‘taking back control’, will increase as it emerges that the Leave campaign lied about both immigration and NHS funding. As the UK faces a recession – with job losses, a weak pound, and a rise in inflation – Scotland will begin the process of secession. The sense of betrayal will be exacerbated in deprived areas where EU funding is cut: in Wales, in the south-west, and in the north-east – the three largest beneficiaries of subsidies, all of which voted for Leave. (This remarkable correlation highlights why the Remain campaign’s focus on narrow economic arguments was so misguided). Since 2000, Wales has received £4 billion of EU funding – when this is retracted, and not replaced by Westminster, fury will be immense. How will the public channel its anger? UKIP has proved most astute at exploiting public discontent, which will likely be channeled against immigrants. Already there are reports of a wave of hate crimes by those emboldened by Leave’s victory.
