Demonstrators during a march against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in Caracas on April 19, 2017. NurPhoto/SIPA USA/PA Images. All rights reserved.
Without a doubt, today Venezuela is facing the most painful and far-reaching crisis in the Americas. The degradation of the current scenario will be catastrophic for all Venezuelans and may have harmful spill-over effects for Latin America (especially, Colombia), the Caribbean (Cuba, in particular), and even the United States (for example, in terms of refugees and oil provision). By now, the international community knows how much the economy has deteriorated, how deep and strong political polarization is, and how ineffective the isolated external involvement has been. In essence, the country is caught in an unstable negative situation. Most socio-economic indicators are unfavourable and the degree of social unrest and institutional erosion is pervasive; however, there is an apparent political standoff and no open division within the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana. This peculiar condition may thus pave the way for a negotiated solution. It is crucial to avoid a national implosion and a regional nightmare. Odd as it may seem, precariousness is better than disarray. Fragility can be fixed; disorder can result in chaos.
Let us start with the end game, and then move backwards: by early 2018 there should be a general election, an opposition candidate is going to win and Chavism--the political movement associated with former President Hugo Chávez--will have to accept the result. Three underlying agreements are crucial: the idea that anybody can perpetuate him or herself in power is unacceptable, now and in the future; the incoming administration must avoid political retaliation and social persecution of the outgoing government of Nicolás Maduro; and Chavism must operate as an ordinary left-wing party within the system and not as an anti-systemic, violent-prone political force.
