An Asian Century?

Getting into the weeds

Both India and Pakistan embarked on major rounds of diplomacy this week. But this was not business as usual.

India went to China. Pakistan went to the US.

Both were historic visits. Both said a lot about the future.

As the Diary is being written, Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is half-way through a week-long visit to China. India’s defence minister George Fernandes (the man who once called China India’s “enemy number one”) has dubbed it the “Let’s be friends” trip.

It is ten years since an Indian leader stepped foot in China. Relations between the world’s two most populous countries (together, they account for over one-third of humanity) have never been good. But things might be set to change.

Signing a declaration that “lays the foundation for an era of harmonious relations” (Financial Times), Vajpayee said, “We should focus on the simple truth that there is no objective reason for discord between us and neither of us is a threat to the other.”

Here’s the pay-off: India is to recognise Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in exchange for $500 million of Chinese investment in Indian infrastructure and a move towards resolution of the border dispute over the Indian state of Sikkim.

For half a century Sino-Indo relations have been marred by conflict, rivalry and mistrust. But now, the two countries may have found a common cause: opposing US pre-emptive military action.

Both countries opposed the US war in Iraq. But is it enough for them to become friends?

Trouble started from day one, even though India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, had dreamt of a Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai, or “brotherhood”, and set out “five principles of peaceful co-existence” in the Panchasheel treaty of 1954. After the 1958 Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule, India gave sanctuary to the Dalai Lama and 100,000 of his followers. China wasn’t happy. Further territorial disputes between the two countries led to the vicious 1962 war and a massive Chinese victory.

China built its first nuclear bomb in 1964, inspiring India to start its own nuclear programme. In 1998, India exploded its first bomb, citing the Chinese threat as a major reason for arming itself. Pakistan exploded its bomb in the same year. India accuses China of helping Pakistan build its nuclear arsenal. China denies this.

Hailing a new era this week the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Kong Quan, made this rather bizarre statement: “The basic thinking is according to what the leaders of the two countries agreed upon in the past, and that is negotiating on equal footing, mutual understanding and giving in.”

Agreements over Tibet and Sikkim will allow both countries to increase cross-border trade. In 1992, bilateral trade was only $338 million. By 2002, it had risen to (a still rather modest) $5 billion. Expect it to rise further.

“[T]he continent may have taken one more step toward the dream of an Asian century,” said The Hindu newspaper.

But what of that dream? Can it be coincidence that as Vajpayee visits China, President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan turns up in Camp David with President Bush?

Musharraf becomes the first South Asian leader to get an invite from Bush into his personal quarters, in itself a telling factor.

According to Muhammad Masood Khan, chief spokesman for the Pakistani foreign ministry, the invite “is in recognition of our close alliance post-9/11 and because we have been allies for a very long time.”

In the past year, Pakistan has arrested over 500 al-Qaida militants, and handed them over to the US. As Musharraf packed his bags over the weekend, Pakistani, US and Afghan troops launched an operation on the Afghan-Pakistan border to arrest more hardliners. The New York Times described “a flurry of arrests” by Pakistani police ahead of Musharraf’s visit.

However, as the Diary previously reported, Islamic militancy is on the rise in Pakistan, not least the electoral victories of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Musharraf himself said recently that Osama bin Laden is probably still alive, and may be living in his country. By actively seeking and relying on US support, the unelected president is playing a risky game.

So, of course, is Bush, who relies on Musharraf to clamp down on the Islamic hardliners. There is concern in Washington that the general hasn’t done enough to root out the militants. There is a belief in Pakistan that Musharraf’s stay in power is fuelling the rise of Talibanised Islam.

America’s policy, so says the NYT, is to “encourage more democratisation without laying down the law or, as one American diplomat put it, ‘without getting into the weeds.’”

Here’s the pay-off: for co-operation in the War on Terror, the US has written off $1 billion of Pakistani debt in recent months (a further $1.8 billion remains). Bush, calling Musharraf a “courageous leader” promised to work with Congress on a $3 billion economic aid package to Pakistan.

Musharraf will have more money to invest and hopes it will gain him some support.

Bush says Musharraf is “working to build a modern Pakistan that is tolerant and prosperous,” and that the US has “no better partner in our fight on terror”.

Musharraf is starting to talk of a “special relationship”.

(Sources: BBC Monitoring, BBC Online, Financial Times, Washington Post, Times of India, New York Times, The Economist, International Herald Tribune)

(Click here to read full text of India-China agreement)

Twelve zip

Iraq 12-0 US.

It’s not a result one is used to hearing.

But that was the score this week when top Iraqi soccer club al-Zawra took on a team made up of US soldiers.

The game was played at the Olympic stadium in Baghdad and marked the official handover of the venue to Iraqi athletes. The arena has been used as a US military base for over two months.

Now, Iraqi Olympic hopefuls can get in training for Athens 2004.

The symbolic game ended in a drubbing for the Americans.

As the Diary has noted before, the Iraqi football team was once run by Uday Hussein, whose enlightened management included torturing his players. Acting head of sport in Iraq, Ahmed al-Samarrai remembers the dark ages: “That regime was similar to the Nazis, to the Communists, which they use sport for politics,” he said.

That’s the Olympic spirit!

Be neutral, or else!

Russia stood a step further towards pure democracy this week – or was that a step backwards?

Whatever one’s interpretation, the Duma voted to amend Russia’s campaign laws so that news organisations whose reports are too biased can be shut down.

What about press freedom?, the Diary hears readers scream. Well, Russia’s politicians believe they tried that, with poor results. The New York Times, rocked by scandal itself, describes political coverage in Russia as “rollicking, aggressive and, truthfully, at times corrupt”.

The Duma has concluded that the democratic process is under threat from “salacious and dishonest journalism” (the Diary wasn’t mentioned). During election times, news organisations will be prevented from advocating one candidate over another, editorialising against a position or policy, or criticising a candidates’ personal character.

The amendments require the approval of the Federation Council and the signature of Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has said, somewhat unconvincingly, that the amendments “must not, of course, be related to restricting the freedom to disseminate information.”

Oh, really?

The changes are meant to prevent political parties, candidates and financiers from buying journalists. In practice, however, many fear journalists will be prevented from producing critical coverage.

The amendments were drafted with the support of the Union of Journalists and the penalties – opposed by the Union – can only be administered by the courts.

A classic case of freedom of speech versus journalistic responsibility.

(Source: New York Times)

Beating the war chest

Also this week, US President George W. Bush took a few steps more towards his goal of amassing a $200 million re-election war chest.

He picked up $4 million in New York on Monday at a fundraiser where the food was $2000-a-plate and the talk all War on Terror.

Governor George Pataki introduced the President to the donors as they munched on “chips and salsa” in the Sheraton Hotel and Towers, eighty blocks from Ground Zero. “[W]e could have never had a stronger leader for our country or a better friend for our city and state than George W. Bush,” Pataki said.

David Donnelly, director of the Reform Voter Project, told the Washington Times, how Bush “is now sprinting around the country as if he’s on a giant monopoly board, scooping up checks as quick as the well-heeled can write them.”

Protestors greeted the Presidential motorcade in New York, with signs like, “Bush leaves no millionaire behind”.

“All the tests of the last two-and-a-half years have come to the right nation,” the President said. “This is the work that history has set before us. We welcome it. And we know for our country and for our cause, better days lie ahead.”

Former Mayor of New York Rudolph Giuliani said that in the aftermath of the attacks on the World Trade Center, he “said a little prayer” of thanks that Bush was president, “because it could have been different.”

Vice-President Cheney did his bit, raising $1.7 million in Virginia and Massachusetts. “The days of excuse-making are over!” he proclaimed

In under a week, between them, the Prez and the V-P have banked $12 million.

Next stop for Bush: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Tampa and Miami. There’s got to be a few cents there.

The BBC reports that Bush has “created an elite tier of special fundraisers, known as the Pioneers and Rangers.”

To become a “Pioneer” and/or “Ranger”, all you have to do is convince fifty other people to donate $2000 each to the re-election fund.

Campaign finance reform faced a major setback last month when key elements of the new McCain-Feingold Act were ruled unconstitutional by the US court of appeals.

Asterix nicked

Finally, it will come as not surprise to readers that Jose Bové, Roquefort-munching anti-globalisation activist, has been jailed again.

This time, eighty police officers, several police dogs and a surveillance helicopter raided his farm at dawn and grabbed him by the whiskers.

His crime was destroying genetically-modified crops and he will serve a ten month sentence.

He should be used to it: he has already served jail time for attacking a McDonald’s restaurant.

Will he never learn?

Quotes of the week

“I think people who are fighting for freedom everywhere deserve our support.”
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose comments outraged Iran’s government.

“Acting on unfounded, unscientific fears, many European governments have blocked the import of all biotech crops ... For the sake of a continent threatened by famine, I urge the European governments to end their opposition to biotechnology.”
President George W. Bush

Figure of the week

56%
The number of Americans who would support US military action against Iran according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Contact the Diary Editor: dominic.hilton@openDemocracy.net