Rising food prices, unless checked, will lead to growing social unrest and the collapse of weak governments, warns Graham Hutchings, editor of the Oxford Daily Analytica Brief. Hutchings, speaking to the Sunday Herald on Wednesday, said that "those [countries which] are net importers of food and those with weak governments will fall, in all likelihood. The overthrow of [Prime Minister Alexis] in Haiti in April over food prices is the shape of things to come."
Hutchings is one of a growing number of analysts warning that high food prices risk provoking a political backlash against governments around the world, through strikes and food riots, or simply by voting them out of office.
The toD verdict: Financial speculation over the price of staple foods, changing diets in China and India, high fuel prices and an increased demand for biofuels have all contributed to food prices this year being 90 per cent higher than in 2007. Already there have been riots in several countries, and the UN is predicting prices could remain high until at least 2017. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle.
Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here
Extreme weather patterns have been exacerbating the situation: the American Midwest, regarded as one of the world's "bread baskets," is currently suffering the worst flooding it has seen in fifteen years, threatening to push food prices even higher. Some areas in the south of China are experiencing the most severe flooding in a hundred years, inundating 5.4 million acres of cropland, and driving up demand. In January, China was struck by the worst snowstorm it had seen in a century, estimated to have wiped out 10% of China's farm production for that month.
At a recent summit in Rome, UN member states agreed to try to halve the number of people in the world going hungry by 2015, but the talks were criticised by some, including Italy's foreign minister, who described the agreement as "disappointing" and "watered down."
Israel agrees to truce with Hamas
Israeli officials have confirmed that Egyptian-brokered talks with Hamas have resulted in a ceasefire being agreed, to go into affect at 6am on Thursday. Rocket and mortar attacks on Israel will cease, and in return Israel will halt air-strikes and raids into Palestinian territory. In addition, should the ceasefire hold, Israel will gradually ease its blockade. If the ceasefire is still standing in two weeks, then talks will begin about reopening the border with Egypt.
Anti-Taliban offensive begins
The joint NATO and Afghan offensive to secure the southern city of Kandahar began on Wednesday. Some 600 Taliban fighters have taken over villages north of the city, in preparation for a bid to retake the former stronghold of the movement. A night curfew has been instituted in Kandahar and NATO and Afghan army reinforcements have been brought into the area. Large-scale attacks from the Taliban have become increasingly rare in recent years, as militants have found roadside and suicide bombings to be more effective.
Zimbabwe expels UN human rights official
A senior UN human rights commissioner has been expelled from Zimbabwe in the run-up to the country's elections. The contest is becoming increasingly violent, with reports of government militias harassing and intimidating people into voting for President Mugabe. The news comes at the same time as a report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), warning that 5 million people could face food shortages next year in Zimbabwe, a country once known for its high exports of grain.
33 suspected Tamil Tigers arrested in Italy
Italian police carried out a series of raids on Wednesday, arresting 33 people suspected of belonging to the outlawed Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and providing financing for the organisation. The conflict in Sri Lanka has claimed tens of thousands of lives since it started in 1972, and has escalated in recent months with a series of bombings and military clashes.
Car bomb kills 63 in Baghdad
Baghdad suffered the deadliest bomb attack in three months on Tuesday, killing 63 people and injuring a further 78. US forces are blaming a breakaway faction of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army for the bombing, claiming the attack was intended to provoke ethnic violence. The number of bombings in the capital has been down since a ceasefire began in May, ending several weeks of fighting between Shia militias and US and Iraqi forces.
