How would a war between Iran and the US unfold? If it so decided, the US could without doubt launch an attack that would devastate any Iranian military ambitions. It would take time to assemble the huge forces required but the wrecking of Iran’s military-industrial complex, targeting its nuclear, missile and drone programmes, could be completed in weeks. Beyond that are many uncertainties – and the UK could be drawn in, like it or not.
War with Iran would be very different from the 2003 Gulf war. Back then, a US-led coalition had control of the Persian Gulf and could marshal tens of thousands of troops in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for the assault across the border into Iraq – a geographical advantage not available for an attack on Iran.
Saddam Hussein's regime was terminated more or less according to plan, but an immensely costly seven-year war followed. Even now, Iraq is deeply insecure and divided – and subject to considerable Iranian influence. Regime change in Iran itself could be more difficult still: last week I argued that, in the event of war with the US, Iranians would tend to unite rather than threaten the government. This is one reason why tens of thousands of US “boots on the ground” in Iran simply won’t happen, even if US super-hawks such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo yearn for regime change.
