President Barack Obama and National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice on phone with Homeland Security Advisor Lisa Monaco receiving an update on terrorist attack in Brussels, Belgium, March 22, 2016. Wikicommons/ Pete Souza. Some rights reserved.The security consultancy IHS Jane’s has just completed an assessment on the risk of an armed attack in Europe. Its report was published a few days before the assaults in Brussels on 22 March (see “Urban Risk”, Jane’s Intelligence Review, April 2016).
The analysis concluded that the risk was high, and most likely to involve the use of firearms rather than bombs because the former are easier to obtain. It also employed a complex methodology to assess which cities were most at risk. The top five were, in order: Paris, Toulouse, London, Brussels and Copenhagen.
The report cited a remark of Rob Wainwright, the head of the Europol security agency: “Europe is currently facing the highest terror threat in more than a decade”. Between 3,000 and 5,000 European Union citizens, he said, "may have returned to Europe after training in the Middle East with the Islamic State group.”
