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Azerbaijan’s 2016: sink or swim?

Protests have broken out in Azerbaijan against rising prices and falling living standards. Will the regime respond with anything but brute force?

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Azerbaijan has joined a growing list of post-Soviet states where the national currency has devalued as a result of the global fall in oil prices. In a country where popular demonstrations are strictly forbidden and monitored, the resulting discontent has scared state officials in Baku. Riot police have been used to silence angered residents who have had enough of the soaring unemployment and sudden price hikes.

Azerbaijan’s manat, the official currency, dipped by a third of its value in February 2015. People’s reaction at the time was minor — only the capital city of Baku saw a riot. It was not until the second devaluation at the end of 2015 that the stage was set for growing discontent.

For the first time in its long history as a pegged currency, the manat switched to a floating exchange rate. As one Azerbaijani economist noted, nobody had yet taught it how to swim. 

According to Bloomberg, Azerbaijan’s national currency lost 52% of its value against the US dollar in the first three weeks of 2016. For Baku, 2016 has had a rocky start.