The Kremlin’s decision to escalate its war against Ukraine – by announcing a partial mobilisation and annexing occupied territories in southern and eastern Ukraine – has left Alexander Lukashenka, the Belarusian leader, with a difficult choice.
Since February, the Lukashenka regime has acted as an accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine, providing its territory as a staging ground for the invasion, and for rocket and air strikes.
If Lukashenka accepts Russia’s new escalation, it will almost certainly bring direct fighting to Belarus. If he abruptly withdraws his support for the conflict, he may in turn lose the support of Russia – which he needs to stay in power.
