On 23 June the British people will make an existential choice by deciding whether or not Britain will remain a member of the European Union. From now until then, everyone from campaigners, politicians, and representatives of business, trade unions, and higher education to journalists, commentators, and opinion shapers will all present different interpretations of the choice at hand. In this guest week we want to not only raise awareness but offer critical analysis of this contest.
Our starting point is that the specific content of referendum campaigns is key to deciding the vote, as are the wider public debates embedding, constraining, and multiplying the messages these campaigns try to convey. This applies to referendums generally, including the 2014 Scottish independence vote and recent referendums on EU matters across the member states. Even if polls show that the voting public favour the EU treaties before the campaigns begin, this initially positive public opinion melts away in some referendums, culminating in rejections. Ece Özlem Atikcan’s research on six different EU referendums since 2005 clearly demonstrates that the campaign – its timing, organisation, and orchestration – is central in determining whether or not this happens.
