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Catalonia's regional elections: scenarios for independence

Should the pro-independence parties win a majority in the regional elections on 27 September, what would happen next? Here are a few scenarios on how the independists may use their popular mandate to secede from Spain.

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In less than a month, Spain – and perhaps Europe – will face a decisive moment. I’m referring of course to September 28: the day after the regional elections in Catalonia are held. That is the earliest date a new regional government could be formed, if one of the parties were to win an absolute majority. That is also the earliest that Catalonia could declare independence from Spain. And that is when the talking stops and every politician and citizen will have to begin making the hard choices with real life consequences.

There are seven parties forming lists for the election on 27S. Three of them are pro-independence while the rest are pro-union. The pro-independence parties are:

  • Junts pel Sí (JPS). “Hardline” pro-independence list formed by CDC and ERC, as well as various other pro-indie civil organizations and leaders. This list is ideologically diverse – CDC is centre right while ERC is leftist – their only common plank is Catalan independence. Neither the leader of CDC or ERC - Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras - are leading this list, rather it is Raul Romeva of ICV.
  • Catalunya Sí que es Pot (SqeP). “Soft” pro-independence list consisting of the Catalan branch of Podemos and Esquerra Unida. The list is headed by Esquerra candidate LLuís Rabell. It has not openly declared support for independence, but their manifesto clearly states support for a “sovereign Catalan people free to decide their own future”.
  • Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP). “Hardline” pro-independence list consisting of far left groups and communists as well as Crida Constituent, headed by Antonio Baños. Desires an independent Catalan republic.

The pro-union parties are: