Furthermore, it is likely that local COVID surges will arise directly from Trump’s final days of frenetic campaigning that included mass rallies. If Biden devotes a substantial part of the transition period to planning for anti-COVID actions, even lockdowns may become more accepted, especially given his stance on the pandemic throughout his campaign. Perhaps I just want to be optimistic, but it might mean that Biden’s first 100 days, along with vaccines becoming available by the early summer, make for a good start to his administration.
What lies beyond all of this is whether Biden will make any substantive difference to the three overarching global crises – a failing neoliberal system producing a more marginalised and divided world, a security paradigm dominated by the military-industrial complex and the huge elephant in the room, climate breakdown.
On the former question, there will be some economic stimulus and green investment, but expect very little radical change. Bidenomics is not about fundamental reforms of a failing system. In any case, the system is so powerful and entrenched that it is unclear whether any world leader could evoke radical change by themselves. On the military issue, Biden’s rule should lead to some development. The shadow wars against ISIS and the rest will most likely continue but he will not want a crisis with North Korea and his administration may move cautiously to get the Iran deal back on track, a route that will be much favoured by EU leaders. Even so, as with the neoliberal system, the military-industrial complex is formidable and any serious rethinking of security outside a few think tanks and campaigners is unlikely.
If that sounds pessimistic on both economy and security, climate breakdown is slightly more positive; in global terms the choice between Trump and Biden is immensely significant. It is not that there will be massive action by the United States – but rather the biggest hindrance, Trump, has been removed.
Moreover, Biden’s presence in the White House will be a boost for the climate science community, not just in the United States, but for activists worldwide. We have to get to grips with rapid decarbonisation in the 2020s, and four more years of Trump would have hugely damaged any chance of doing that. There will be substantial symbolism in seeing the US re-enter the Paris accords at the end of January. And that is one of the most significant outcomes of this election result.
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