Prime Minister Theresa May is greeted by Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House in Edinburgh. Andrew Milligan/PA Images. All rights reserved.The Scottish referendum in 2014 did little to disturb foreign governments’ belief in the UK’s essential stability and continuity. The UK would remain the UK, it would not leave the EU, and its character as a state and society would stay broadly the same. Politically liberal, centrist and pragmatic, its adaptability had been well illustrated by the Good Friday Agreement, devolution settlements and active if truculent engagement with European institutions. The SNP’s bid for independence, and the UKIP-driven campaign to leave the EU, were flashes in the pan.
Just three years later, the view from abroad is very different. Governments regard the UK as a country that is divided, prone to delusion, and driving itself off the proverbial cliff. It is a country that is essentially unstable, unreliable and vulnerable to discontinuity. They are making no assumptions about the future political shape of the British Isles or the character of its parts.
Just recently, their musings on the UK have been affected by a marked loss of confidence that an orderly exit from the EU can be negotiated. Positions have hardened and goodwill has waned. A view is gaining ground that Theresa May would use a large Conservative majority – were it attained in June’s general election – to ‘crash out’ of the EU, rather than endure the pain of long and tortuous negotiations. Furthermore, the patriotic surge that she has encouraged is being interpreted as preparation for blaming the EU and its member governments for the negotiations’ failure, giving her and her party shelter in any ensuing storm.
