Donald J. Trump shakes hands with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department February 6, 2019 in Washington, DC. Picture by Alex Wong/DPA/PA Images. All rights reserved.
Publicly, the objective of the US-sponsored conference in Warsaw on 13-14 February this week that purports to address ‘peace and security’ in the Middle East remains vague. Yet, Secretary Pompeo was clear enough in his recent Cairo speech: “Countries increasingly understand that we must confront the ayatollahs, not coddle them.” In brief, the Warsaw conference is part of America’s diplomatic offensive to marshal Europe, the Gulf states and Israel against Iran, Qatar and, perhaps, Turkey. The fact that Poland’s government went along with hosting the event also demonstrates how the US intends it to split European Union policy towards Iran. Fresh on the heels of the creation of the EU’s special purpose vehicle INSTEX, the US will be keen to nip in the bud any further European action that undermines its own anti-Iran policy. The underlying problem is, of course, that while the US and Europe share some concerns about Iran, their strategic interests differ.
