Conn Corrigan (New York, Columbia School of Journalism): Fianna Fáil, the main government political party in the Republic of Ireland, has officially registered as a party in Northern Ireland, which will add to speculation of a possible merger with the SDLP, as Tom Griffin writes below. The Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern told an audience at a Dublin dinner: "In recognition of the new political dynamic on the island of Ireland, I have signalled our intention to look at strategies on how Fianna Fáil can become a 32-county organisation." In September, SDLP leader Mark Durkan refused to rule out a Fianna Fáil merger, and in November, a straw poll taken by the Observer at an SDLP conference found strong support for the idea among rank and file members.
This would make Fianna Fáil the third "All Ireland" party, after the Green Party (which is currently in coalition with Fianna Fáil) and Sinn Féin. Sinn Féin's electoral ambitions in the south received a major setback in May's general election when only four of its TDs (Irish MPs), were elected, down from five. There was much speculation around 2004 that Sinn Féin, which had been doing well in the polls, could double its number of TD's, seize the balance of power in the Irish parliament, and possibly enter into coalition with Fianna Fáil (although Bertie Ahern rejected this idea).
Traditionally, Fianna Fáil have been seen as a far ‘greener" party than Fine Gael, the second largest party (and when I say ‘green' I don't mean in a an environmental sense - Fianna Fáil's close links with property developers are fairly infamous - I mean in an Irish republican sense). While Fine Gael calls itself ‘the United Ireland Party', it became regarded as far more anti-Sinn Fein, and more hospitable to unionism - so much so that its former leader, John Bruton, the Prime Minister from 1994-97 and the current EU ambassador to the US, was once disparagingly referred to as ‘John Unionist' by another former Prime Minister, Albert Reynolds of Fianna Fáil.
Meanwhile, Sir Reg Empey, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, has accused Bertie Ahern of "throwing a grenade" into Northern politics just as it was settling down. UUP MEP Jim Nicholson added that while the UUP should form an opposition with others to the Sinn Fein/DUP ‘carve up' of power, he saw little chance of this in the short term. "With the SDLP playing fast and loose with Fianna Fail it is unlikely that this option could presently be pursued" he said.
Jeffrey Donaldson was much less concerned, saying that the move could actually split the nationalist vote and help unionists gain seats. He added that he couldn't see how a SDLP/Fianna Fáil merger could possibly work, given the differences between the two parties. But perhaps he is forgetting that Fianna Fáil's brand of populism makes it remarkably adaptable - they are in government with the neo-liberals in the Progressive Democrats, as well as the Green Party - and perhaps not realising how devoid of ideology Irish politics is, Donaldson said the obvious party in the south for the SDLP to join with would be the Labour Party.
If the SDLP and Fianna Fáil do merge, and it proves to be successful, I wonder if the UUP and DUP might follow suit, in a bid to counteract the emerging "pan-nationalist front"? And where would that leave Sinn Féin? Fianna Fáil's move up North, and this potential merger, poses an interesting problem for the party: an SDLP/Fianna Fáil conglomerate could make for a formidable electoral opposition and Fianna Fáil, now that they have effectively seen off the challenge of Sinn Féin in the South, would relish the challenge of taking them on in the North. But Sinn Féin has ostensibly welcomed the fact that they have chosen to organise in Northern Ireland. "In its own way," said Gerry Adams, "It can help erode the partitionist mentality that pervades so much of Fianna Fáil's politics."
A central idea of the Northern Ireland peace process, and of the Good Friday Agreement, was that with peace the extremes - the DUP and Sinn Féin - would gradually wither away at expense of the moderates - the UUP and the SDLP. These two parties, who were largely responsible for the peace process, have actually received little thanks from either of their electorates. Thankfully however the DUP and Sinn Féin have been pulled into the middle ground which, in one sense, has been the genius of the peace process. But this raises the question: what, today, is really the difference between the UUP and the DUP? And what's the difference between Sinn Féin and the SDLP?
From what I can tell there is precious little difference in either case. Both the UUP and the DUP are fairly conservative; both Sinn Féin and the SDLP are more left leaning, although the SDLP has historically been more socially conservative (the SDLP was born out of the civil rights movement). Sinn Fein has abandoned physical force republicanism for constitutional nationalism, which has been the SDLP's position all along.
But I still wouldn't expect either a UUP/DUP or SDLP/Sinn Féin merger anytime soon - not because of policy differences, but because of historical animosities. The SDLP and Sinn Féin have been bitter rivals, while Ian Paisley has denounced every leader of the UUP, from Captain Terrence O'Neil in the 1960s to David Trimble in the 1990s. (Sir Reg Empey, the current UUP leader and Trimble's successor, can thank himself lucky that Paisley appears to be mellowing in his old age.)
One interesting possibility that could result were the SDLP and Fianna Fáil to merge might be a deepening of ties between the UUP and the Conservative Party. No doubt this would bring a smile to former UUP leader David Trimble's face, who defected to the Conservatives, and who has spoken of his hope for a future alliance between the two parties.
