The fatalistic predicament of Ukraine

Europe's new dividing line. Demotix/Igor Golovniov. All rights reserved.Bloody clashes in front of the Ukrainian Parliament have reminded us about the EU’s tormented neighbour. Ultra-nationalists were not successful in the last parliamentary elections, but the tragic situation in Donbas has allowed them thrive. At stake this time were planned changes to the Ukrainian Constitution that envisaged a territorial decentralization as stipulated by the Minsk Agreement. For Ukrainian radicals these changes “imposed” from outside amount to a partition of their country. Is Ukraine unravelling? I do not think so, but much depends on Europe.

European leaders said many times that the future of Europe and Ukraine are entangled. The last thing they want is to have a huge failed state on their eastern border. This is why President Poroshenko is being offered red carpets, lavish dinners and numerous photo opportunities in European capitals. Sadly, very little results from his visits, photos and dinners. So far the EU has failed to give Ukraine a significant economic aid, lift visa restrictions or invest seriously in Ukrainian civil society institutions. Never mind talking about providing ammunition or arms to defend the troubled country.  

If Ukraine is so important for the EU, then why does the EU do so little to assist it? My explanation points to a paralysis of the mind, or if you wish, to a lack of trust and imagination. EU leaders seem not to believe that Ukraine can achieve what Poland has achieved over the past two decades. Why invest time, money and careers in a lost cause? This fatalistic thinking explains or even “justifies” the EU restraint to a large extent.