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A Gulf in understanding

The outline Iran nuclear deal has highlighted divisions in the region—not just between majority Shia and Sunni states but between those supporting the status quo and those challenging it.

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lausanne.jpg
lausanne.jpg

All smiles in Lausanne—but glummer faces offstage in Riyadh. Flickr / European External Action Service. Some rights reserved.

Could we be witnessing a slow-burning but inexorable chain reaction of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East? While the Israeli leadership predictably condemned last week’s nuclear deal with Iran, Gulf state monarchies are grappling with uncertainty about the future and assessing their options. The Saudis have already hinted that they could develop their own nuclear-weapons capabilities, pointing to a highly dangerous scenario where states in an unstable region deploy nuclear arms or remain ready to do so at short notice. We could be standing at a critical moment.

The joint statement by the EU and Iran in Lausanne last week contained much promise of significant agreement, though much remains to be agreed before the deadline of 30 June. The White House issued its own ‘Parameters for a Joint Plan of Action’ a few minutes later, outlining its detailed understanding as to what had been agreed, which seemed to some a little too good to be true.