The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, called it “no more than a glimmer of hope” after all-night negotiations in the Belarus capital, involving the leaders of Russia, France, Ukraine and herself, concluded on 12 February.
Indeed many of the 13 paragraphs of Minsk II were already in Minsk I of 5 September 2014, supplemented by additional language a fortnight later: ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons (now with wider buffer zones), monitoring by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, local elections, pardon and amnesty, return of prisoners, humanitarian assistance, withdrawal of foreign military and decentralisation of powers for “some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (those separatist-controlled). Most of the provisions of Minsk I were violated.
So what will be different this time? First, there are additional provisions which may be significant. Secondly, the strategic political and economic context is categorically different.
