The election of Paul Nuttall as leader of UKIP has been described as a "game changer" for Labour. Image: Flickr/European Parliament. Some rights reserved.It has become an accepted wisdom in much of the Labour Party — from the right to the left — that UKIP represents an existential threat to the party’s heartland vote in those parts of the north of England that voted Leave. Chuka Umunna told the Times that the party had "no safe seats", while a ‘senior Corbyn ally’ was also cited in the same story. Frank Field described the election of Paul Nuttall as a "game changer" for Labour. And Stephen Kinnock spoke in similar terms of how Labour’s "obsession" with diversity would hit its electoral prospects in its heartland northern areas.
The fact that this risks becoming common sense across the right and left of the Labour Party affirms the adage that ‘a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes’. While the threat to Labour’s support from UKIP should not be underestimated it has to be based on a credible analysis of the evidence to hand.
So are there credible reasons for thinking UKIP represent a threat to Labour’s existing electoral coalition? As we survey some of the evidence it becomes clear that this threat is something of a ‘phantom menace’. Those promoting this argument have a particular agenda, which, if the party were to follow it, would be ruinous.
